Why Iemma isn't 'Italian for Unsworth'

When asked why they would hesitate in voting for Iemma, respondents nominated his performance (23 per cent), his team (19 per cent), unimaginative (10 per cent), honesty (10 per cent).

With Debnam it is his conservatism, or that of his party, (26 per cent), policies (10 per cent), lack of experience (8 per cent) and weakness (6 per cent).

The sub-text for Iemma is that Labor is pretty bad, has been in too long, Iemma is uninspiring, but as for the Libs … . The sub-text for Debnam is that the NSW Liberal Party is run by Rednecks and Christian “nutters” to whom he is beholden and that he lacks any experience or strength of character.

Another factor in the Liberals’ woes is federal government policy, with many voters nominating Debnam’s promise to sack 20,000 public servants and his undertaking to bring NSW under the Federal IR umbrella, as negatives. Much of the concern about “policy” stems from this, and 5 per cent directly nominated IR as a reason for hesitation.

In other words, while there is a strong desire to change government, NSW voters do not want one that is right-wing or run by Christian fundamentalists: many voters including roughly half of Liberals, don’t feel they know enough about the Opposition leader to make a judgment on whether they approve of him or not. They could have been susceptible to an opposition fronted by a known and respected moderate politician, with a plan to increase investment in NSW infrastructure and clean-up corruption in the state.

This is essentially how Greiner beat Unsworth. Greiner was identified as a moderate, he was a well-known quantity having contested and lost the previous election, he was respected for his ability inside and outside politics, he had a strong team, and he put forward a strong positive agenda for developing New South Wales.

When you compare Debnam and Brogden, who comes closest to Greiner?

It’s possible that Brogden’s mental state might have made it impossible for him to ever front this election as leader. However, it’s just as possible that his mental state was precipitated by the extreme pressure he must have been under from the right-wing faction in his own party under-mining him.

From my reading of our polling, it would have been better for the Liberals, and Debnam, if Brogden had been allowed to contest this election. They could probably have won it. There’s a message here also for the Liberal Party around Australia which is increasingly being penetrated by various conservative Christians, and has a penchant for killing-off leaders without giving them a proper chance to prove themselves.