Kevin Rudd is still the underdog

Howard’s record should warn any observer against taking him lightly. He has recovered from seeming defeat in past elections, like 2001. He is usually bold rather than negative under pressure. His ministerial reshuffle followed quickly by his big plan for centralised control of national water policy shows this. While much of the reshuffle was unexceptional, moving Malcolm Turnbull straight into the Cabinet with responsibility for environment and water elevates a first rate performer into the heart of the party contest. It could work.

Howard’s approach to water may have a political motivation and the details may be scratchy, but he has picked an issue that resonates with voters of all persuasions. Voters think something should be done. This issue enables Howard to be on the front foot, his favourite stance.

At the same time Labor’s new team still contains many shadow ministers who have yet to make their mark. There is a mixture of some sturdy old-hands, some others with demonstrable potential and a few who seem undistinguished. There was little that Rudd could do about that other than elevate Peter Garrett. The outcome of the Garrett-Turnbull contest may determine the result of election as much as any other apart from Rudd-Howard.

Rudd does seem to be surrounding himself with some high-powered staff and advisers. This will be a most professional team, whereas the Latham team in 2004 appeared not to be a united one.

Rudd will still need some luck to win. That luck might come in the form of some government stumbles or economic downturn of some sort. Neither can be assumed. The luck could even go the other way. Who knows how the electorate would react to the breaking of the drought, for instance.

Political scientists who pick the return of the incumbent government rarely get the result of an election wrong because change is rare. That means they miss the kudos of predicting the occasional boil-over, like the defeat of Jeff Kennett in Victoria. The most likely result is a swing to Labor that falls short of the 3.3 per cent necessary to bring down the government. If Rudd does win it will surprise me and, therefore, the sensible long-range forecast is that there will be no political rain on Howard’s October parade.