Have libertarians had enough?

The government is in a strong fiscal position, our actual involvement in Iraq has been ephemeral and the Prime Minister has allowed (although perhaps unwillingly) some social concessions recently, such as the conscience vote on RU486 and stem cell research.

Yet the government is looking tired (as all longstanding governments eventually do) and the sense of missed opportunity among fiscal conservatives is growing. John Howard has reigned during the longest and biggest economic boom ever and yet he has allowed the tax take to balloon by over 40 per cent in real terms since 1995-96.

In terms of renewal, while the reshuffle brought in the expected new talent of Turnbull and Robb, the main players have remained the same and Vanstone’s departure sees one less social moderate at the table.

The question remains as to whether the Labor Party has either the policy nous or political desire to go after these voters. The new leadership “dream team” of Rudd and Gillard has exactly zero runs on the board when it comes to economic policy, and while financial spokesmen Swan and Tanner are making all the right noises, it remains to be seen whether they will be given the power to stem the tide of the inevitable pork barrelling to come in the next nine months.

Given all of these caveats, it is highly unlikely that libertarian leaning voters will abandon the Howard Government in droves at the next election, and the Prime Minister has plenty of time to throw them a bone or two before the poll, if he so chooses.

However, if Tanner and Swan keep up the “high taxing Howard” theme, and are allowed to offer some real policy alternatives, the leak of libertarian votes along with the expected return of some of “Howard’s battlers” to the Labor fold due to the IR laws and interest rate rises, may be enough for the Government not to need to ask for whom the bell is tolling come the end of the year.