More sceptics this time on the trail of the never-ending campaign

The Labor Party's national conference in April will see Rudd pitted against the West Australian Premier, Alan Carpenter, on uranium mining. The West Australian Labor Government made a commitment at the last election that there would be no mining during its 2005-09 term of government. Rudd would not want to have his authority in the Labor Party challenged by a rogue premier in the West.

However, West Australians generally don't react well to being lectured to by east coast politicians. Howard knows this will be uncomfortable for the Labor Party and has been drumming up the issue already this year. Labor's challenge will be to come to a unified position on uranium mining in order to shift attention to Howard's strange decision to back nuclear power.

While he is often portrayed as populist, Howard's noises on nuclear power show that he not afraid to position himself as a strong leader, defying public opinion in the national interest.

The Coalition's marginal seat holders were vocal in their support for Howard just six months ago over the supposed leadership deal with the Treasurer, Peter Costello. Many of them, already targeted in a scare campaign over the positioning of nuclear power stations, must be wondering about the Prime Minister's judgement.

Howard's office has been rocked by the departure late last year of the Prime Minister's chief of staff, Arthur Sinodinos. Arguably the second most powerful man in the country, Sinodinos left to pursue a lucrative career in the private sector after 10 years of loyal service.

While it only briefly made the headlines, the loss of Sinodinos to Howard's team should not be underestimated. Sinodinos was the key to Howard's ability to balance good policy with partisan political interests.

Finding the right balance between policy and politics is the key to governing successfully in the era of the permanent campaign.

Since 2001 Howard has been unmatched as a political leader. While he goes to great lengths to stay in touch with the concerns of ordinary voters, his fourth term has also been about achieving long-term personal goals. The lack of opposition from Labor and in the Senate has allowed Howard to indulge his desires in industrial relations, media policy and privatisation.

All these policy areas provide Labor with an opportunity to respond with a platform that is both more popular and crucially, better for the country. The electorate's early response to Rudd's elevation to the Labor leadership is an unambiguous message to Howard that his Government has passed the point at which the electorate will give it the benefit of the doubt. He will have to work very hard to beat Rudd.

It is inevitable that even in winning the next election, Howard will lose a swag of seats, and with it authority in the party room. That would make for an uncomfortable start to a sixth term as the Costellos, Turnbulls and Nelsons begin jockeying for position, knowing Howard won't be around for much longer. That's a best case scenario.

Howard may come to regret missing the opportunity to retire last year and give Costello the chance to freshen the Government's image. The advantages of incumbency don't last forever.