When relationships prove to be a headache

Australian Prime Minister John Howard is proud that his government has been able to develop close relations with China while deepening Canberra's traditional alliance with the US. Now he has decided to take up a new challenge, despite Chinese and South Korean nervousness - sign a security pact with Japan.

Mr Howard is in Tokyo this week for meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the highlight of his four-day visit was the signing of what both countries are terming a joint security declaration.

Mr Howard has been at pains to let everyone know that he and Mr Abe are not signing a formal treaty. Yet he has not dispelled a certain wariness in China and South Korea about the security declaration.

Beijing has, through diplomatic channels, told Canberra it is concerned that the pact will include the aim of containing China. And South Korea's ambassador to Australia last week said his country wanted to know exactly what the security pact entails.

Seoul, according to media reports, is concerned about intelligence sharing between Japan and Australia.

Mr Howard, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and Mr Abe have been at pains to point out to Beijing that this agreement is not directed in any way at China.

Nor should South Korea be concerned, says Canberra.

But slightly mixed messages are being sent. At the weekend, Mr Howard said Australia may one day enter into a security treaty with Japan as powerful as Canberra's military and strategic alliance with the US. When he talks like that, one can understand why some in Beijing are wondering whether Australia is trying to be all things to all people.

And Beijing will be nervous about reports in the Australian media this week suggesting that Canberra and Tokyo are already sharing intelligence on China.

This security pact can be seen as a natural extension of a 50-year-old trade relationship between Australia and Japan. That nation has gone from being Australia's enemy in World War II to its No1 trading partner today.

But what if Canberra and Tokyo do sign a fully fledged security treaty in future - one that obliges Australia to support Japan militarily against China?

Perhaps that is why Australia's opposition leader, Kevin Rudd, is pouring just a few drops of cold water on the Australian-Japanese security pact. He may become prime minister after the general election later this year if the current opinion polls are any guide.

Mr Rudd has worked in China and speaks fluent Putonghua. He said last week that while he supports closer defence and strategic ties between Australia and Japan, he doesn't think Mr Howard should have signed a formal security declaration.

"Given [Australia's] current strategic circumstances, I don't believe we should now be moving down the path of a formal defence pact between our two countries. To do so at this stage may unnecessarily tie our security interests to the vicissitudes of an unknown security policy future in Northeast Asia," Mr Rudd said.

What he was really saying is that this new security pact might prove a headache for a future Australian government if tensions between Japan and China, and potentially South Korea, require Australia to take a firm stand on one side or the other.

Mr Howard says such fears are not valid. Australia has a good relationship with China, he says, and he doesn't "believe for a moment" that signing a security declaration with Japan will damage Australia's relationship with China.

Mr Howard's sanguine view has received support from Shi Yinhong , professor of international affairs at the People's University in Beijing. Professor Shi says that "normal relations" between Australia and China will continue, despite Beijing's displeasure at Australia and Japan's actions.

There would be enormous economic and strategic implications for a middle-ranking power like Australia alienating a rising giant like China. So it seems unlikely that Mr Howard would have consented to the agreement with Japan unless he knew that Beijing - despite some public huffing and puffing - wouldn't make life difficult for Australia.

But who can tell what the future will bring, particularly if Japan pursues a more assertive - perhaps even aggressive - role in the region, seriously unsettling Beijing. Such a development cannot be written off as mere fantasy.

It could present Australia with a genuine headache if Tokyo, citing the security agreement between the two countries, were to look to Canberra for material support.