Correct weight

Perhaps a visit to the racetrack could throw some light on the issue. After all, the bookmakers are the judges of form.

Fortunately records show the winning odds and the favourites. For the Cox Plate 40 per cent of the winners were favourites. In the same period from 1922, 26 per cent of the Melbourne Cup winners were favourites reflecting the open handicapping. The balance of winners in the Melbourne Cup was no slower than the favourites. In fact even those winners with odds of greater than 15–1 were no slower than the favourites.

These “outsiders” may better represent the average performance of thoroughbreds. If this is the case then does this show that there has been no improvement in performance?

Horse racing with its strong attention to breeding and genetics has lagged behind the modern genetics of other major domestic species of animals by only initiating a program to develop a complete genetic map in 1995 well behind cat and cattle genetic mapping. The first equine, but not thoroughbred genetic maps were published in 2000 and it will be fascinating to see if this sophisticated work will help the breeding.

So maybe it is the horses’ limited breeding. But we are all descendants of a few mitochondrial Eves and Y-chromosomal Adams so perhaps the answer is to be found in the breeding of the trainers.