Howard’s Republican gamble

Some reference to both the past and the future seems appropriate after such a monumental victory for the US Democrats. Winning both houses of the US Congress from the opposing party’s control has only happened twice since the 1950s. Incumbency is a tremendous advantage in the congress, as once elected you generally can look forward to a long political career.

This victory should give the Democrats a chance to rebuild. They would be well advised to focus on the policy failings of the Bush administration rather than attempting to impeach Bush or going after Karl Rove.

On the other hand, the Republicans will hope this election is a temporary setback, akin to the loss suffered by the Democrats in 1946 in what was widely seen as a mid-term referendum on President Truman.

In 1946 Truman’s mid-American mannerisms were regularly mocked by the press and few candidates invited him to campaign at their side. The backlash proved to be temporary, however, with Truman winning in 1948 and the Democrats gaining near total dominance of the Senate until 1980 and the House of Representatives until 1994.

Looking to the future, our prime minister’s preferred candidate, John McCain, is still favoured to win the presidency in 2008. To have a Republican septuagenarian in the White House would suit a re-elected Howard Government. However, a Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama presidency may well put Howard back to where he started in the 1990s - struggling to get the attention of a Democrat president.