The rebirth of Russian power

Putin’s diplomatic skills, which invite favourable comparison with those of his American counterpart, have produced a strategic partnership with China at the same time as the two countries have become each others' major arms trading partners. This, together with the sophistication of its military technology and the fact that it is now the world's biggest oil and gas energy supplier, make it a formidable international influence.

The combination also suggests that the quality of its military technology will only improve and that if the United States could not establish a clear ascendency over the past 15 years it is unlikely to do so in future.

America’s choice, after 1991, to neglect soft power and increasingly resort to the display of hard power made Russia, with its energy resources, modern weapon systems and military technology, an attractive partner for China. China’s need was heightened by the US-led arms embargo imposed after the Tiananmen incident.

While this partnership is one of the most important geopolitical developments of recent times and represents a much more powerful grouping than the former Warsaw Pact, it has been little remarked upon.

Were Iran, another major global supplier of oil and gas energy and the most industrialised and the most populous nation in the Middle East, added to the equation, the triumvirate would pose more than a formidable challenge to the lone superpower.

Some recent commentary suggests that the major arms of American military influence, its hugely expensive fleet of vulnerable and obsolete aircraft carriers and its exposed satellite communications systems, may prove acutely vulnerable to the application of asymmetric warfare by even one of these powers.

Together with the surging economic growth of East Asia, the rebirth of Russian power poses serious questions about the continuing global viability and competitiveness of democracy and capitalism as practised in contemporary America.

Perhaps the major positive for the United States in Putin’s achievement is the fact that the next American President should not face a situation quite as serious and difficult as Putin inherited from Yelstin at the opening of the 21st century. Nevertheless, Democratic Party kingmakers in the United States need to reflect carefully on who amongst the many aspirants - Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or someone else - is best qualified to emulate Putin.