Fact rather than fable in the Iraq debate

The Lancet Iraq casualty surveys are so tainted by hyperbole that they have attracted criticism even from fellow anti-war travellers. The most notable demurrer emerged from Iraq Body Count (IBC), an organisation explicitly critical of the Bush administration whose raison d’être is the documentation of civilian deaths.

Through rigorous empirical sourcing, the IBC has calculated that between 44,000 and 49,000 Iraqi non-combatants have died as a result of the war and its aftermath. And in a press release issued after the publication of the Lancet study, Iraq Body Count skewered Les Roberts, et al, for their “extreme and improbable” estimates.

The Lancet team claims that over 85 per cent of the 600 fatalities that formed the foundation for its study were validated through official Iraqi death certificates. If so, then logic would indicate that the authorities have also documented a similar proportion of Roberts’ 655,000 excess fatalities. But because the Lancet estimates far exceed government casualty figures, the survey implausibly suggests the existence of a half-million certified, yet unregistered, death certificates.

The situation in Iraq is horrible enough without resort to partisan hyperbole. And when the justice of the war is placed upon the scales, today’s tragic carnage should be weighed against the infinitely bloodier track record of Saddam Hussein.

By all means let us engage in a national debate on the wisdom of Australia policy in the Middle East. But we owe it to ourselves to ensure that our arguments are based on fact, rather than fable.