China's opportunity to act decisively

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Tuesday that the language being used by China to denounce North Korea after Monday’s reported nuclear test was unprecedented.

Dr Rice said there was a real chance that China could act strongly against North Korea and support US calls for tough sanctions in the UN.

“This was a serious step over an important line [by North Korea]," Rice said. “China is using language they have used maybe four or five times in the past few decades and never about North Korea.”

But China has made promises to act before and then balked. Before North Korea’s July 4 missile tests and again before this week’s nuclear test, China said it was determined to stop North Korea from further provoking the world community. And China, with the assistance of Russia, has participated in fighting US calls for greater UN action against Iran and its nuclear quest.

Now that a nuclear test has reportedly occurred in North Korea, what is China going to do?

China's Ambassador to the United Nations said on Tuesday that the Security Council must give a “firm, constructive, appropriate but prudent response” to North Korea. Wang Guangya told reporters that North Korea must face “some punitive actions” for testing a nuclear device.

“The nuclear test will undoubtedly exert a negative impact on China and North Korea's relations,” said China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao. He reiterated that Monday's test was done “flagrantly, and in disregard of the international community's shared opposition”.

And who is in a better position to apply “some punitive actions” to North Korea? Who is in a better position to exhibit the “shared opposition” to North Korea?

China controls North Korea's energy supplies; and with winter coming it is difficult to imagine that fuel sanctions from China could be overcome by North Korea, with supplies currently on hand, for long.

China also supplies food and other aid to North Korea.

China is highly motivated to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. China fears a mass migration of hungry North Koreans into China and China wants to continue its own remarkable economic growth without further (unplanned) spending on an arms race. China wants a quiescent North and South Korea, Japan and US.

The BBC's Dan Griffiths wrote on Tuesday, “China wants stability on the Korean Peninsula; the last thing it wanted was an international crisis right on its doorstep”.

China also has to share the fear many have: that North Korea will sell nuclear technology to the highest (terrorist) bidder. China could be a target as the Communist regime has many terrorist adversaries that would be eager to strike a nuclear blow.

North Korea’s nuclear program also raises the spectre of the pursuit of nuclear weapons by South Korea, Japan or Taiwan: another unwanted outcome for China.

US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton said of China and North Korea, “After all the support they've (China) given them, after all the effort China has made to resolve this diplomatically, North Korea, in testing this device, has in effect put their thumb in [China's] eye”.

Australia used similar tough talk aimed at China. Australia Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said North Korea had “humiliated China”.

In Britain, one of President Bush’s staunchest allies, Prime Minister Tony Blair, when asked during a BBC  TV interview how worried people should be said,: “We should be very worried.”

He added, “The other tragedy about North Korea is what is happening to the people there. The people live in virtual starvation, almost a form of political oppression that's akin to slavery. And meanwhile they spend billions of dollars on a nuclear weapons program.”

Japan and South Korea also have a huge role to play. South Korea has a policy of encouraging reunification on the peninsula. This “Sunshine Policy” of benefits to North Korea in exchange for steps towards reunification must now be called into question. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said he would review the policy. Critics harshly attacked his government saying this was the most dangerous time on the Korean Peninsula since the end of the Korean War in 1953. South Korea has been lied to and deceived as much as anyone and they do not want to spend more on their military.

Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces his first major test. Japan has been making moves towards a more active role in world military circles than at any time since the end of World War II. Abe has announced that Japan would not pursue nuclear weapons of its own - an announcement that would have been unimaginable a year of two ago.

Even Russia has reasons to worry about a nuclear North Korea. The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday, “The Russian side [has] indicated its readiness to participate in joint efforts by the interested parties aimed at a peaceful diplomatic resolution of the situation surrounding North Korea”.

Russia also has described the reported nuclear test as a “colossal blow”.

At the UN, as work on the issue of sanctions against North Korea began to wind down on Tuesday, a familiar kind of stalemate began to appear, with the US favouring strong sanctions and China and Russia backing off at least somewhat. The US wants efforts in place to detect missile and nuclear technology transfers by North Korea. The US also wants to halt methods developed by the North Koreans to gain wealth, including drug smuggling and currency counterfeiting.

In foreign policy matters, nations act first and foremost upon their “national interests”.

Persuading North Korea to scuttle its nuclear program and behave is clearly in the national interest of China, Japan, South Korea and Russia. But it is China that has claimed the greatest influence over North Korea. And China has missed, fumbled or overlooked opportunities to assist the greater international community before. And North Korea has ignored China as well as the international community before.

The current crisis is a test for the UN. Moreover, this is a real test for China and China’s future leadership role in world foreign policy and diplomacy.