Hezbollah cannot be destroyed

Syria and Iran’s roles in the current conflict have been overstated by Washington. Hezbollah gets weapons and finance from Iran, but Iran is not the puppet master. Hezbollah is very much a Lebanese nationalist organisation. It is true to say that Syria still has considerable political influence in Lebanon. (We should remember that Lebanon was part of Syria until Syria was fragmented by the 1922 League of Nations mandate.)

Israel will eventually have to negotiate with Hezbollah on the issue of occupied Lebanese land and prisoners-hostages, but it would prefer to do so from a position of strength. Israel probably also hopes to buy the time it needs to redraw its borders and absorb the most desirable areas of the West Bank before there is a new Administration in Washington.

Hezbollah and Nasrallah have gained enormous stature in the Middle East through standing-up to Israel over the past two weeks. At the same time, Israel’s actions have made it many new Arab and Muslim enemies, and lost it a lot of friends in the West.

Both Israel and Hezbollah have clearly been guilty of war crimes, but the moral outrage against Israel will be greater. Neither will ever be brought to book in a legal sense because neither is a member of the International Criminal Court and, of course, the US will veto any UN condemnation of Israel.

If Israel manages to kill Nasrallah, we might well see Hezbollah strike back against Israel overseas through one of the many Lebanese communities, including possibly Australia’s - as it did in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.