Darfur peace agreement in limbo

As well as maintaining the pressure on Abdel Wahid and the JEM, Western governments need to ensure a robust international presence on the ground. There are 7,700 AU troops monitoring the situation in Darfur, but personnel and logistic constraints have fatally undermined local confidence in them. The AU force must be replaced by a UN peacekeeping force. According to media reports on July 31, the UN Secretary General is proposing the deployment of up to 18,600 UN peacekeepers. Unsurprisingly Bashir opposes this, but he should relent if sufficient pressure is applied by Western governments.

Although the first task of the UN peacekeepers will be to monitor the implementation of the peace agreement, this is only the beginning of a larger venture to rebuild Darfurian society. The present conflict arose from disagreements between farmers and nomadic camel herders over limited land and water resources in the 1980s. Only by fairly re-distributing economic resources, reforming land tenure and reconciling communities, will peace in Darfur have a chance.

How likely then is Western re-engagement in Darfur? The other peace process that is happening in Sudan at the moment may offer an answer. There are over 10,000 UN peacekeepers in southern Sudan, supervising the implementation of the 2005 peace agreement between the Sudanese Government and southern rebels. Like Darfur, Western governments were instrumental in the successful conclusion of the peace talks, but their attention waned after the peace agreement was signed. Consequently, the former combatants, especially Bashir, are increasingly interested in exploiting each other’s weaknesses rather than co-operating to further the peace process.

This is an ominous sign for Darfur’s future, and makes it more imperative that Western governments re-engage the combatants.