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Defeating the Iranian-Syrian axis in Lebanon

By Yaakov Amidror and Dan Diker - posted Tuesday, 1 August 2006


The duration of the current war depends on Israel, Lebanon, and the international community. If the Lebanese realise that with every passing day the accumulating losses are taking too great a toll, if the international community continues to allow Israel to uproot Hezbollah without pressuring Israel for a cease-fire, and if the UN stays out of the fray, the war does not have to last very long. But if Israel is pressured to stop its operations, this acute conflict will indeed last a long time.

This is a war in which Israel is acting primarily through its air force, which is a new approach. However, if Israel's air force fails to stop Hezbollah rocket assaults, Israel may be forced to send in substantial ground forces to control the areas from which rockets are being launched. This real possibility would have far-reaching implications in terms of potential losses for the IDF and for the citizens of Lebanon.

No less significant is Israel's readiness to absorb damage to its home front. This requires a much higher degree of national resilience than that of the first Iraq war when Saddam Hussein fired 39 Scud missiles at Israeli cities. This time there is much more damage and loss of life on the home front, but Israel is showing great fortitude and national will.

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Iran's ongoing war against the West

Even if Israel is successful in destroying the Hezbollah infrastructure, Iran will not be deterred in its ongoing war against the West, for Hezbollah's attacks on Israel represent Iran's strategic decision to launch what it sees as a counter-offensive against the West following America's post 9-11 attacks on the regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan. Echoing Iran's perspective, the conservative daily Jomhour-e Eslami, affiliated with the Islamic seminaries of Qom, reiterated in a July 17 editorial the charge that "the conspiracy of bringing down the Twin Towers in New York with one plane, which was totally dubious, was a pretext for occupying Afghanistan and Iraq, and for [providing] unqualified support to the Zionist regime in its crimes against Palestine."

The Iranian editorial noted that "America's collaboration with the Zionists in murdering the Palestinian people, destroying Lebanon, and [hurling] baseless accusations against Iran [regarding] nuclear activity - which is now coming to a head - is a new phase in America's crusade against the Muslims. This is exactly the point at which the leadership of the Islamic nation must play a role." This underscores the assessment that if Hezbollah is neutralised in the current conflict, Iran will have lost a major asset in its ongoing struggle against the West.

The diplomatic front

In order to achieve its war objectives, Israel must succeed on the diplomatic front in addition to the battlefield. It would be nothing short of catastrophic for both Israel and the international community if diplomatic efforts result in Israel being forced to end its military operation prematurely. Furthermore, it is incumbent on the international community, which last year demanded that the Syrian army withdraw from Lebanon, to provide the necessary assistance to Lebanon that will ensure that Hezbollah is disbanded as a military force, and this must be the highest international priority.

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First published in Jerusalem Issue Brief Vol. 6, No. 2 on July 19, 2006.



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About the Authors

Major-General (res.) Yaakov Amidror, Program Director of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs, is former commander of the IDF's National Defense College and the IDF Staff and Command College. He is also the former head of the IDF's research and assessment division, with special responsibility for preparing the National Intelligence Assessment. In addition, he served as the military secretary of the Minister of Defense.

Dan Diker is a senior policy analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and heads its Defensible Borders Initiative. He also serves as Knesset correspondent and analyst for the Israel Broadcasting Authority's English News.

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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