Malign neglect meets brinkmanship

But there are two problems with this approach. First, international non-proliferation and missile-control regimes have significant loopholes, and in the absence of serious diplomatic efforts to define and maintain "a red line", what constitutes "something really stupid" would be unclear. Back in 1994, through direct talks with North Korea, the US made sure that re-processing plutonium would constitute a red line, and the Agreed Framework helped to sustain this red line.

Similarly, back in 1999, the US was able to establish a red line on North Korea's missile tests after serious bilateral negotiations. In short, these red lines were shaped through diplomacy. But, after years of malign neglect, no one knows where the line is drawn anymore. Can North Korea continue to produce fissile material as long as it does not transfer this material to a terrorist organisation?

Second, North Korea has taken tentative measures for economic reform and greatly improved its relations with China, South Korea and Russia since 2000, and these neighbours are unlikely to go along with punitive sanctions unless they are convinced that the US has given diplomacy a fair chance. North Korea would like to stabilise its external environment by normalising relations with the US, but, if it must, it can get by on decent relations it has with its neighbours. In the meantime, while Washington hardliners pretend they are making life miserable for Kim Jong Il, the US position in north-east Asia is being eroded.

If pre-emption is too risky and malign neglect is too ineffective, the only remaining alternative is to establish a credible red line and negotiate seriously with North Korea through bilateral and multilateral talks.

The US should end what North Korea regards as "hostile policy" towards it and North Korea should dismantle its nuclear program under inspection in a phased and reciprocal manner. Through various efforts to improve relations and promote economic cooperation, the six parties should build peace in north-east Asia. Otherwise, North Korea is sure to produce more fissile material and perfect its missile technology, escalating tension every once in a while to draw attention.