A paper tiger

Sadly, what should be a dispassionate debate, crucial to the future of the nation, has become embroiled in politics. The argument that a parliament would be better able to formulate and carry through policies for the long-term good of the country was gaining ground until the intervention of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

She pronounced herself in favour of the change - under certain conditions, including that the system should be introduced almost immediately, that it should consist of just one legislative chamber, and that there should be a transition period until elections in 2010 during which she would hold the roles of both president and prime minister.

Her political opponents immediately saw this as a power grab, and a backdoor way of extending her term - she is due to stand down in 2007 - while the unicameral nature of her proposal was a way of disposing of the Senate, which has been a source of troublesome opposition to her.

Arroyo has effectively stalled the movement towards constitutional change - which given the Byzantine nature of Filipino politics may have been her intention all along - leaving the country with a stagnating, discredited administrative structure to go with its economy.

That presents a dangerous final option. Groups within the military, including middle-level career officers who are disgusted with political corruption and the failure of their own commanders to pacify the insurgency, may feel they have a role to play. It is a disturbing thought and one that other countries with interests in the region, including Australia and the United States, cannot afford to ignore.