Despite Canberra's assiduous support for Washington over the last two years, the US will not deviate from pursuing its national interests just to reward a junior partner. Even in the current amicable climate there won't be a free trade agreement between the two countries which requires US farmers to compete on a level playing field with their Australian counterparts.
Australia is earning a reputation as Washington's stalking horse, even in countries such as Iran where it is far from clear that our interests and Washington's coincide. It's not only trade policies which diverge. Australia's more sensible approach to the North Korea problem is having little if any effect on Pentagon planners. Elsewhere in North Asia Canberra never wants to be forced to choose sides in a dispute between the US and China over Taiwan. But can it avoid the issue?
Do we actually share America's values, as Prime Minister Howard claims in his explanation of why Australia is targeted by Islamic militants? We are certainly the only ally in East Asia which publicly identifies culturally with the US. However, it is not clear that Australians would generally embrace the neo-conservatism and Christian fundamentalism which permeates the Bush Administration - even if John Howard, Peter Costello and Michael Jeffery do.
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Nor are expressions of cultural affinity especially helpful to a policy of regional engagement. Australia's intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq put us at odds with our closest neighbours in South East Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia) just as it did during the Gulf War in 1991, reinforcing a belief that we default strategically to the US in times of global crises. These days, regional engagement looks skin deep. We habitually notify the region of decisions we have taken after they have been cleared with Washington. We don't consult them beforehand.
Has Australia's closer relationship with the US since 2001 actually enhanced our security? At a time when the US itself has never been more militarily powerful, it has never felt less secure. This paradox brings little comfort to Australia.
Recent legislative responses to alleged terrorist threats, peeling away long-established legal protections and civil liberties, do not suggest Australians are seeing the benefits of Washington's security umbrella. Public opinion, particularly after the Bali attack in October 2002, seems divided on the virtues of the US alliance and periodically concerned by Washington's aggressive behaviour. There are fears that the invasion of Iraq will encourage other 'rogues' such as Iran and North Korea to acquire or develop the only military technology likely to deter a US strike - nuclear weapons. Encouraging the proliferation of WMD is hardly in Australia's interests.
President Clinton's tardy response to the East Timor crisis in 1999 tapped into subliminal doubts within the Australian psyche that, despite regular down payments on insurance premiums since the 1950s, the US may be reluctant to pay out when we ultimately make a claim under ANZUS.
Washington disregarded institutions of global order and world common good such as the United Nations and international law, once they failed to legitimate an attack on Iraq. This is a regrettable but available option for states which can use their raw military power to achieve foreign policy objectives. Why not-so-powerful states such as Australia, which are disproportionately more dependent on the stabilising features of international society, should emulate such behaviour is not obvious. Small and medium powers have a greater interest in the protections afforded by national sovereignty and international law.
Whether Mr Downer is following the neo-conservative agenda in Washington with his emphasis on "outcomes" rather than "process" and his rejection of a "blind faith in principles of non-intervention, sovereignty and multilateralism," remains to be seen. The ends rarely justify the means. It is to be hoped, therefore, that he hasn't sacrificed strategic perceptions for ideological solidarity. The temptations of unipolarity are not for us.
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"Sovereignty in our view is not absolute," claims the foreign minister. "Acting for the benefit of humanity is more important," unless the country in question is Indonesia and the humans are Acehnese or Papuans. Then there is no reluctance to "hide behind" a sovereignty which is absolutely more important.
Finally, an over-reliance on the personal chemistry between leaders can be intoxicating but is almost always a short-term benefit. As the Keating-Suharto friendship showed, jointly crafted institutional structures have greater longevity than transient political leaders. If President Bush loses in 2004 or Prime Minister Howard retires from political life some time soon, the current level of goodwill between the political elites of both countries may suddenly pass and relationships will need to be made anew.
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