If West Papua becomes independent, we will have two weak former Indonesian provinces on our doorstep and, moreover, a seriously compromised relationship with Indonesia. In the worst case, Indonesian fears might be realised, and the country could be racked by renewed civil war and a return to authoritarian rule. That, surely, is in no one’s interest.
Clearly we are walking a tightrope over West Papua. We can hardly sit on our hands, as we did for too long over East Timor, and allow abuses to occur without some form of effective protest. But neither should we do anything which might destabilise Indonesia’s fragile democracy, which is still far from securely or completely established.
I think that the government has so far walked this unpleasant tightrope about as well as could be expected. There was little option but to grant the West Papuans protection: it is hard to believe that in existing conditions there they could ever be safe had they been sent back. But really there was little option but to simultaneously support Indonesian sovereignty. The claim may be questionable, but we are too far down the track now to try and reverse history.
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However, it is not just Canberra but Jakarta that has to walk the tightrope. In particular, there is an urgent need to rein in the security forces in West Papua, to prevent further abuses, to create conditions where people who argue for independence (without resorting to force) can be safe. Moreover, Jakarta has to accept that our political system cannot and will not suppress those groups in Australia which support West Papuan independence, and that our courts and tribunals (which actually made the rulings on the present asylum seekers), far less our media, are not controlled by our government.
This issue is not going to go away. It will require both sense and sensitivity, and a willingness to forego some short-term advantages, from all concerned to manage it successfully. But it is possible, and there are long-term benefits on offer. For Australia and Indonesia, stable relations with an important neighbour; for Indonesia, undisputed sovereignty over its present territory; for the West Papuans, a place in a stable and democratic Indonesia where they can live with dignity, rights and without fear.
But for this to happen we are going to need to see some real diplomacy. I think the government has made a start. And the Indonesians too have done likewise. Their protests were inevitable, but they could have done much more than temporarily recall their ambassador. Through actions such as opposing a boycott of Australian imports and facilitating the memorial service for the Australian personnel killed on Nias during tsunami relief work last year, Jakarta is signalling that there are bounds to its displeasure. But this is only a start: let us hope that all parties carry on as they have begun and safely navigate these treacherous waters.
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