F-T synthetic petroleum based on black coal is one scenario that can work and provide clean fuels that will complement our well-being. Another is the development of the massive oil-shale reserves. Raw oil-shale petroleum however is rich in poly-aromatic hydrocarbons and will need to be refined to reduce or eliminate such constituents. Both F-T and oil-shale petroleum can be produced in the required quantities at bowser prices that will not collapse the Australian or world economies. The prices will however be greater that those enjoyed during the 1980s and 1990s in real terms.
(The international price of fuel is most likely to be dependant on two barely estimable factors: these being the fuel demand by the growing Chinese and Indian economies, and by the proximity of the Middle East suppliers to arriving at their Peak Oil hiatus. If Australia develops non-traditional oil resources, the option will exist for taking Australian supplies and production out of the World-Parity-Pricing system. That would be an interesting decision for government.)
Bio-diesel, ethanol, and so on, will not be able to replace a significant portion of the 1000 kbbl/day oil demand that Australia will soon be facing. Natural gas as LNG will be required for power generation and chemical production, while the hydrogen, solar and other renewable energy sources will remain as niche contributors or far-off dreams.
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Conclusion
We do need cleaner petroleum, especially in our and our neighbours’ congested cities. Bio-fuels will not be able to be supplied in quantities sufficient either to make a significant contribution to the transport energy or reduce atmospheric pollutants.
Liquid fuels produced from black coal using the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis do provide exceptionally clean emissions, emissions that should satisfy even the most fastidious health expert - such as Professor Ray Kearney.
If Australia is to avoid a depression brought on by liquid fuel shortages coupled with excessive fuel costs, then it must develop alternative liquid fuel resources based on its plentiful solid fossil fuel reserves as quickly as possible.
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