Oil - some crystal ball gazing

Oil companies may be able to move into alternatives. Coal, wood and electricity would be difficult to control - but biofuels and hydrogen are a possibility - with the oil companies taking advantage of their service stations and associated infrastructure.

Initially increasing oil prices would mean we use fewer (or no) private cars (by expanding car pooling; motorcycles would have an edge), with "individual" cars for emergency services only. Transport would be limited to pedestrian, cycle and public transport. (If we hadn't planned for it, the market would now force it on us.) Our old rail based transport system operating using coal might be revived.

If our economy can manage it, perhaps private transport will be possible - biofuels, hydrogen or electric vehicles through coal or nuclear power - with a significant changeover cost.

Liquid fuel is the only thing which cuts it for aircraft, and they use a lot. Air travel would again be the luxury it was in the sixties.

The price of food and other goods would increase. It's said that 7.5 calories of oil are embodied in every calorie of food produced by western industrial agriculture.

What about the country, where people need to travel more and car pooling is not feasible? Well, perhaps they'll be able to charge more for their produce to be able to afford some transport. Transportation relying on trucks would be replaced with a network with coal or electric trains as its backbone. But, yes, there would have to be some significant lifestyle changes.

But it's not clear how international trade will impact on the country and city. The price of international shipping must increase. But how will the price of domestic and imported goods compare? Much country produce is exported rather than directly sustaining Australian cities.

Supposedly the system will adjust, but you can't help thinking that oil prices will rise to the point where the economic activity of a city cannot sustain the required domestic and international food imports, or where the country shrivels up and dies, unable to sell anything, let alone being able to function.

I don't think this will happen. There are some fundamental limits, but they're far off.

In taking farm produce to the table, transport consumes about 40 per cent of the total energy in the process. The shopper's vehicle consumes about 10 per cent of the total energy. But, shopping uses only 2 per cent of the total fuel going into vehicles. It’s clear to see that for all this energy, society has a lot "up its sleeve" when we pare back to essentials. Food is more important that most of the other "add-ons" in our economy. If we can at least grow the food, human motive power can provide the transport, itself sustained by the food grown.

This is an extreme scenario. Some say the disruption will be relatively minor. A mere speed bump on the road of economic growth. Regardless, it seems to me that humanity will endure. And even if there's a lot of hurt, it's not in the ballpark of floods, famine, civil disorder (well, hopefully there won't be too much rioting), war or pandemics.

We could be in for a storm. But let's keep it in perspective.