Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

America’s primacy: Is decline imminent?

By Russell Trood - posted Wednesday, 15 June 2005


In the mid 1980s a genre of international relations literature emerged which was described broadly as “declinist” since it looked forward, not necessarily with great enthusiasm, to the decline of the United States from its position of global pre-eminence.

Notable among the contributors was the Yale historian, Paul Kennedy, with his book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. It was an impressive piece of scholarship, a compelling global narrative covering 500 years of great power history that ended with some sombre warnings on the dangers of American “imperial overstretch” and a forecast that it could lead inexorably to America’s decline.

International relations being no respecter of historians’ reputations, within five years of Kennedy’s book being published, the Soviet Union had collapsed, the Cold War had ended and the US emerged as the world’s one remaining superpower. At least in the short term, Kennedy’s prognostications appeared spectacularly errant.

Advertisement

Nearly two decades on, a plausible case could be made that perhaps Kennedy was right after all. The great republic appears besieged on all sides. America’s standing in the world appears to be in free fall. Where anti-Americanism was once the preserve of Washington’s Cold War adversaries, the left in France and miscellaneous malcontents largely from the Third World, in 2005 it seems more widespread.

A deepening ideological chasm between the United States and parts of the Muslim world is evident, but equally alarming, the anti-American contagion appears to have spread more widely, severely affecting relations between Washington and some of its allies and close friends in Europe.

Nor has the American economy done well in recent years: sluggish domestic growth (now picking up), high current account and budget deficits, a declining dollar and an economy with slow job creation and significant losses in the manufacturing sector, are all a cause for concern. Then, of course, there is Iraq, where despite the deployment of massive military and other resources, Washington is struggling to support a challenging experiment in democracy and to guarantee Iraqis long-term peace, prosperity and security.

As bleak as this picture may be, however, it would be exceedingly unwise to see within it the seeds of American decline. Eventually, like all great powers, America’s period of pre-eminence will come to an end, but this is a very long way off. Most of the discontents currently troubling the American body politic, both at home and abroad, reflect short-term policy challenges. They require attention to be sure, and they could lead to more serious problems, but at the moment the foundations of America’s global position remain firmly in place, providing a durable basis for its continuing pre-eminence.

Underpinning the United States’ primacy is its massive structural power relative to its global competitors. This strength starts with the extraordinary size and energy of the American economy which, with a GDP of US$10,500 billion is nearly twice that of the next ranked country - Japan. With a quarter of global GDP, the American economy underwrites much of the world’s trading, finance and investment activity, maintains a remarkable entrepreneurialism and is adapting to and benefiting from the challenges of globalisation.

Perhaps most importantly for the future, the dollar is stable as the world’s main reserve currency and continues to underwrite global liquidity, while American business continues to lead innovation, especially in the areas which are the modern drivers of growth and wealth - information and communications technology.

Advertisement

In relation to military capability America’s strength is even more impressive. With an annual defence expenditure greater than that of the next eight countries combined, an arsenal of both conventional and nuclear weapons, armed forces of all services deployed around the world and an active commitment to the continued exploration of space, America possesses a security capability with a truly global reach and many times that of its nearest rival.

At the same time, the United States’ massive continuing investment in military research and development will underwrite its commanding military strength well into the future. Beyond defence, a large, growing and well educated population, and a stable political system, reinforce these structural strengths.

American primacy is also founded on its “soft power”. As Joseph Nye has argued, this is the ability to get others to “want what you want” - it co-opts rather than coerces, and rests on people in other countries admiring and respecting American values and being willing to embrace them. Despite the apparently widespread anti-Americanism that suggests a rejection of these values, to many around the world the US remains an inspiration and a beacon of hope for a better life. The reality may be different to the image, and in some places around the world, the pull of soft power is undoubtedly viewed as a threat; but for millions of people, especially among the young, American values and culture, its science and technology and its educational opportunity, have a seductive appeal.

America enjoys pre-eminence because it possesses these strengths to a greater degree relative to all other countries. The Economist magazine was undoubtedly correct when it declared in 1999 that the “United States bestrides the globe like a colossus”, but the more important point is that no other state is close to having either the will or the capability to challenge America’s primacy.

As American realist scholar Stephen Walt has noted, America’s position of primacy fosters fear and resistance when its power is misused, but strikingly, at least as yet, no serious international coalition or balance of power has formed to counteract it. None of the obvious contenders - China, Russia, Japan, India or the European Union seem interested. Perhaps the power differentials are too great and the task too demanding.

Alternatively, as a recent study of the US National Intelligence Council suggested, perhaps it is because US policies are not perceived as sufficiently threatening to warrant such a step. Either way, America’s unchallenged supremacy is an event unique in modern international affairs, and looks to be substantially more than the “unipolar moment” the neo-conservative columnist, Charles Krauthammer, proclaimed in 1990.

American primacy means that Washington’s power and influence is both global and highly diffused. President Clinton’s Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, captured this reality when she once famously remarked that America was the “indispensable power”. It was not said with hubris, or with the implication that the US could or should act unilaterally, but rather with the recognition that “America needs to be there”.

As troubling as it may be to those opposed to American power and purpose around the world, little of significance can be achieved in international affairs without Washington’s participation: sometimes with the use of its coercive power, sometimes with its ability to persuade and cajole.

Among many other things the much-needed United Nations’ reform will not take place without America’s active participation and support. Success in the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations will require Washington’s energetic commitment to change. A serious international effort to address global warming will not be effective until the US signs on. And in a dozen trouble spots around the world - in the Middle East, Asia and Africa, Washington’s intervention has the capacity to shape and determine outcomes, for good or ill.

Historically, only imperial powers have wielded this kind of power and influence, and generally they yield their dominance only reluctantly and when confronted by a successor. For the moment there is no obvious successor. Certainly China’s power is rising, but this is unlikely to be a linear process. China is not yet a regional hegemony, still less is it a global challenger.

None of this is to suggest that great powers, the US included, can preserve their pre-eminence without the studious guardianship of strengths and judicious exercise of their power.

As the eminent historian, John Lewis Gaddis, provocatively remarked recently, “It is always a bad idea to confuse power with wisdom: muscles are not brains”. Whether the first term foreign policy of the Bush Administration is guilty of such a confusion is debatable, that it has struggled to deal effectively with some of the many challenges it has faced is less controversial.

As critics and supporters alike have noted, many of its foreign policy actions have been sound and principled, but implementation has too often proved a weakness. The reasons are important, as they will need close attention in Bush’s second term, but for the purposes of this discussion the more significant point is that this administration’s shortcomings threaten to undermine America’s great power legitimacy and thus its ability to secure important policy objectives, such as the expansion of democracy.

But this is not a terminal condition as the “declinists” are wont to believe. When the US emerged triumphant and pre-eminent from the World War II, the Truman Administration (and its successors) faced the challenge of protecting American power and advancing core national security interests in a world of danger and immense change. They were able to meet this challenge by working with American friends and allies to confront threats and shape a liberal political and economic international order that allowed America’s interests to be advanced, its ideals to be admired and its strength to be respected. Military power underwrote the strategy, but it also made creative use of America’s economic strength, a talent for diplomatic bargaining, artful resort to multilateralism and an enlightened attention to the value of international law.

In short, Washington used all of its available means and instruments of power to secure policy objectives. Policy failures sometimes occurred, as the outcome of the Vietnam War demonstrated, but for the most part American grand strategy secured legitimacy and delivered both prosperity and security, not just for Americans, but for millions of others in the international community not subjugated by communism.

In a globalised world, where the networks of interdependence that are its foundation go, in Thomas Friedman’s words, “farther, faster, cheaper and deeper”, and we face a new security threat, the challenges are manifestly different to those of 1945. The response will need to be different, but as the Bush Administration is showing in the early months of its new term, Washington can remain committed, while also retaining a capacity for adjustment and change.

As it has been able to do in eras now past, the United States must place its power, purpose and primacy on a new 21st century foundation that will serve to underwrite its international legitimacy. This is not just a cause for Americans. For all those members of the international community (including Australia) that revere America’s liberal political values, gain prosperity from its economic enterprise and find security in its military might, this is a cause which is in their interests too.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

10 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Dr Russell Trood is a Liberal senator for Queensland in the Australian senate and is Deputy Chair of the Senate’s Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Russell Trood

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Russell Trood
Article Tools
Comment 10 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy