Best not to follow the leader polls

The natural order of affairs is for incumbents to outrate their opponents in polls, even when the government is unpopular. Just look at Keating versus Howard in 1996, when Keating ran on strong leadership, led Howard in the preferred prime minister stakes, yet was thrashed at the election.

Beazley wouldn't want to make this mistake from Opposition, only focusing on being remembered for his newly found "ticker". We already have seen a snapshot of how he gets portrayed in the media - as a man not with ticker, but wanting ticker, or at least the appearance of ticker.

The Federal Government has its share of problems. It houses a deputy desperate to elevate to the leadership, with a likely ugly showdown just around the corner. It has reneged on the election promise of a low threshold Medicare safety net, and it has a tax cut package that delivers 80 per cent of Australians a worse deal than Labor's model. Throw in a cooling housing market and a drought threatening the Budget bottom line, and the Coalition may not be the political Goliath it so often is portrayed to be.

These weaknesses can be exploited by a party in the hunt come the next election. It is the party vote that will tell us if they are, not the preferred prime minister poll.

Beazley wants to be seen as having ticker. The best way to do that is by winning the next election. Just ask Rann, Bracks, Carr and Gallop, all of whom were seen as unpopular opposition leaders lacking strength. Ask Howard, who before becoming prime minister was seen only as an unpopular opposition leader lacking stature. Things change from the government benches.