Long-term success also depends on the involvement of the world's biggest polluter - the US. President George Bush is unlikely to sign on soon, but a parallel track is needed so Kyoto holdouts such as the US (and Australia) can eventually fit into the global framework.
Second, a post-2012 agreement must establish a clear long-term objective for an enduring plan. The International Climate Change Taskforce has recommended the goal of preventing global average temperature from rising more than two degrees above the pre-industrial level.
Third, there should be extensive use of market-based policy instruments. While "emissions trading" was once a dirty word, cap-and-trade programs are now seen as a low-cost way of controlling emissions. Ambitious renewable energy targets and clever research and development strategies can help encourage the swift development and widespread deployment of renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies.
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At times, Australia has shown great talent for bringing together diverse coalitions of countries and helping to forge consensus at international bargaining tables. Witness the role we played in founding the UN, or the way the Cairns group put agriculture on the global trade reform agenda in the 1980s and '90s.
As an ally of the US and an integral part of the fastest-growing region in the world, and with our links to Europe, Australia could play a valuable role in developing an effective post-2012 climate change agreement. So save the champagne, it's time to get to work on an agreement that will do the job.
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