Seismic shift in voters' views on best party to handle key issues

An analysis of Newspoll results over the past 15 years shows that there has been a seismic shift in voters’ views on which political party is best to handle the issues they consider the most important.

The recent Newspoll published in The Australian, identifying which issues are important when Australians vote in Federal elections, again demonstrates the strength of the position of the Liberal-National Coalition Government. Predictably, health and Medicare, education, the economy, welfare and social issues as well as national security rate highly.

The strength of the Howard Government's position is not simply revealed in the latest results, but a detailed examination of the relative positions of the Liberal-National Party Coalition and the Australian Labor Party on these issues over time.

Springboard Australia has tracked and analysed Newspoll results in these surveys dating back to when they were first collected in the late 1980s and 1990s at the height of the Hawke and Keating Government success. That analysis reveals the massive ground shift that has occurred in the minds of voters and the commanding position the Liberal-National parties have on key issues. It also highlights the difficult task ahead for Labor.

On health and Medicare, the latest Newspoll indicates the Liberal-National parties are considered the best to handle the issue by 37 per cent of Australians with the Labor Opposition rating 40 per cent. But in 2003 the Liberal-National parties rated only 30 per cent to Labor's 38 per cent. So over the past 2 years there has been a 7 per cent improvement for the Coalition parties while only a 2 per cent lift for the ALP.

More striking is the results for the same poll taken during the Keating era. In April 1991, the Liberal-National parties were considered the best to handle the issue by 29 per cent of voters compared to 39 per cent for the ALP. Immediately prior to the 1993 Keating victory, the ALP rated 40 per cent to the Liberal-National Opposition 29 per cent in July 1992. By September 1994, after the ALP won its fifth election with Paul Keating as leader, the Government had a commanding lead over the Liberal-National Coalition of 45 per cent to 26 per cent.

So since 1994 to February 2005 the ALP has lost 5 percentage points, and the Liberal-National parties have increased 12 per cent, when voters are asked who is best to handle health and Medicare.

On education, long considered a strength for Labor, the picture is not much better. In fact it may be even worse. While results in this policy area have only been measured since May 1999, the shift is just as dramatic.

At that time (May 1999) the Liberal-National parties was considered the best party to handle education by just 30 per cent of voters compared to 39 per cent of voters for the ALP. In June 2001, the ALP led the Coalition Government on this measure by 15 per cent with 42 per cent of voters saying the Labor Opposition was best to handle education compared to 27 per cent for the Liberal-National parties. By February 2003, the Coalition Government had lifted its rating to 33 per cent and by February 2005 it had risen again to 39 per cent, just 1 percent behind Labor on 40 per cent.

Which ever way one looks at it the Liberal-National parties have made considerable improvement in its rating by voters when it comes to education. Between June 2001 to February 2005 they have lifted their rating from 27 per cent to 39 per cent, a 12 percent increase, while the Labor Party has dropped 2 percent from 42 per cent to 40 per cent over the same period.

Again, on welfare and social issues, the Liberal-National parties have significantly improved their performance.

In February 2003, 28 percent of voters said the Liberal-National parties were best to handle these issues. By 2005 it had risen to 35 per cent, a 7 percent increase. Labor over the same period rose just 2 percent to 42 per cent.

Historically, the Liberal-National parties improvement is even more impressive.

In September 1994, the Coalition parties scored just 23 per cent support among voters compared to the Keating Government's 44 per cent. So in just over 10 years, the Coalition parties have improved their performance by 12 percent while the ALP has gone backwards 2 percent.

On national security, the ALP's appalling position in the post September 11, 2001 environment continues with only 21 per cent of voters say they would be best to handle it compared to the Liberal-National parties at 57 per cent. Notably, in the 9 months since June 2004 to February 2005, the Liberal-National parties rating improved 7 percent from 50 per cent and the ALP dropped 5 percent from 26 per cent.

Labor's desperate position is also reflected in polling on the economy and related issues.

In February 2005, the Liberal-National Government scored an impressive 60 per cent to 20 per cent for the Labor Opposition. Compare this to the results on polls taken in February and March 1990 when the ALP led by 37 per cent to 33 per cent and 37 per cent to 31 per cent respectively.

Sobering indeed that since the height of the Hawke-Keating reforms the ALP has dropped 18 per cent while the Liberal-National parties has risen 31 per cent in the area of the economy and related issues.

On taxation, Labor was considered the best party to handle the issue by 39 per cent of voters compared to 30 per cent voters for the Liberal-National parties in September 1994. By June 2004, the Liberal-National parties has risen to 41 per cent and the ALP dropped to 34 per cent.

On interest rates, even during and after the high interest rates in the 1980s and 1990s, the ALP performed better than today when voters were asked who can handle the issue best.

Their best performance on this measure in September 1994 was 40 per cent to the Liberal-National parties 28 per cent. By February 2002, the Liberal-National parties had dramatically risen to 52 per cent and the ALP plummeted to just 19 per cent voters support - a 24 per cent turn around for the Coalition parties and a 21 per cent collapse for the ALP.

The results on inflation are much the same.

In July 1992, just prior to the Keating election victory the ALP was considered the best party to handle inflation by 33 per cent of voters and 34 per cent for the Coalition parties. In September 1994, after Keating's historic win, 40 per cent of voters said the new Government was best to handle inflation compared to 29 per cent for the Liberal-National parties. But by June 2004, the Liberal-National parties were considered the best to handle inflation by 52 per cent of voters compared to 22 per cent saying the ALP was better.

Again in a little over 10 years the Liberal-National parties have improved by 23 per cent and the ALP had dropped by 18 per cent.

As Springboard Australia noted in our July 2004 newsletter in the lead up to last year's poll, John Howard and his Government have been working successfully at minimising their negatives and improving votes perceptions on the Government's management of key issues.

These figures and analysis demonstrates that this has not just been a recent phenomenon.

Critically, it has more than dramatically shifted voters' perceptions, in many cases it has reversed previously held views.