While the launch of Meg
Lees' new party, the Australian
Progressive Alliance might seem like
good news for those who believe soft liberal
voters are in need of representation,
if she fails it will just mean the further
consolidation of John Howard.
There seems to be plenty of evidence
around to suggest that soft, or small
'l', liberals are in need of representation.
The Prime Minister has worked hard to
transform the so-called Liberal party
into a purely conservative outfit and
in the process has alienated many of the
small 'l' liberal voters that have traditionally
found a political home in the party. If
arch-conservative Tony Abbot is appointed
as his successor the transition will be
complete.
Advertisement
The billions of public dollars poured
into private health funds, extra funding
for elite private schools, harsh treatment
of asylum seekers, and disdain shown towards
the UN are all indicative of a party that
has left any commitment to genuine liberalism
far behind. None of this would sit comfortably
with voters attracted to small 'l' liberal
thinking.
Over the last decade and a half, the
Liberals' moderate MPs have been either
squeezed out or induced to tow the conservative
line. Former moderates Robert Hill, Phillip
Ruddock, and Brendan Nelson are now senior
government ministers and have transformed
into powerful advocates of conservative
policy. With the death of Peter Nugent
in 2001 only about 5 or 6 Liberals who
could still be described as small 'l'
liberals remain. Contrast the recent solidarity
shown on the war in Iraq with previous
public outbursts against party policy
on issues like Asian immigration, reconciliation
and mandatory sentencing and it is clear
just how compliant the Liberals' moderates
have become.
While the viability of a strictly small
'l' liberal party is yet to be tested
at the ballot box, there is a good amount
of evidence to suggest it could attract
a significant share of the vote.
In the UK, the Liberal Democrats - a
party firmly based in liberal thinking
- is polling more than 20 per cent of
the vote and is poised to overtake the
hapless conservatives as that country's
true opposition.
Closer to home, the solid support previously
shown for the Democrats in the months
leading up to the 2001 federal election,
and now for the Greens (though to a lesser
extent as the Greens support seems to
be coming more strongly from the ALP),
is a good indication that voters can be
attracted away from the Liberals.
The strong performance of independents
in some electorates also points to an
electoral market for small 'l' liberal
thinking. Independent federal member for
Calare, Peter Andren, and NSW state independent
member for Manly, David Barr are politicians
who have clearly articulated small 'l'
liberal views on issues including asylum
seekers, the war in Iraq, ABC funding,
and reconciliation. Their success stands
out as evidence of a market for small
'l' liberal thinking in what would otherwise
be conservative electorates.
Advertisement
But is Meg Lees the right person to galvanise
these disaffected liberals into a united
national voice?
For Meg Lees' new party to be successful
it will need to be more than just Democrats
Mark II. It is a less-than-encouraging
sign that the party executive Lees announced
was comprised entirely of ex-Democrats.
The fact that Lees could find no one outside
the Democrat ranks to take on the key
party positions suggests she either didn't
try or failed to entice anyone of merit
to her cause. Ex-Liberals would give her
real credibility, although some ex-Labor
members would also have been useful.
Lees' party will prosper if she is able
to inject new ideas into the political
market place. But it will need more than
the few loose positions and vague promise
to "improve legislation" that
was announced at the party's launch. Lees
will need to sell voters a small -'l'
liberal vision of Australia's future that
goes well beyond the humdrum and negativity
of the current stagnant national policy
debate.
While there is clear potential for Lees'
party, the risk her failure would pose
to the small 'l' liberal cause is that
she would have made it harder for anyone
else to step forward to fill the liberal
vacuum. With a gaggle of independents,
greens, and the remnants of the Democrats
still on the scene there is only so much
political oxygen to go around.
If Lees fails, this would be just more
good news for John Howard. With nowhere
better to go, small 'l' liberals will
have no choice but to keep voting big
'L' Liberal for a while longer yet.