Democrats - now known as the 'Others'

It was a very public rejection of Democrat meaning and relevance. Her replacement, Senator Meg Lees, had to start again. Kernot's defection occurred four days after a South Australian election where the Democrats came second in two-party preferred terms in a high number of adjoining seats. Kernot did not campaign. Had she been committed to the campaign when she was at her peak, it is possible some of those seats would have fallen to the Democrats and created a “fortress” to build out from, including the likelihood of taking the Federal seat of Mayo in 1998.

Looking at the polls, leaders Cheryl Kernot and Meg Lees achieved election percentage results substantially higher than the polls, and their polls were overall more stable (within a band) than other Democrat leaders, including Chipp and Haines.

It is also clear from the graph that leaders from the “left” of the Democrat spectrum saw precipitous falls in Democrat polls.

Key dates in the Leaders and Polls graph

Chipp’s departure in May 86 saw the Democrats slump 2.5 percentage points.

August 87 to November 90 the Haines’ effect lifts the Democrats 7.5 percentage points.

In March 90 Haines loses her House of Representatives bid and retires.

Powell and Coulter lose all Haines' gains in a continuous slide over the next 3 years, and the Democrats never again achieve Haines’ heights in the polls.

Kernot coup in April 93 stops the slide.

Kernot's defection to Labor October 97 causes Democrat slump in the polls. Although new leader Lees recovered ground, a further percentage point remained lost.

As the graph shows and contrary to popular myth, the Democrats support for a modified GST during the 1998 election and the GST deal in 1999 did not cause a major collapse in Democrat polls, which remained above the levels following Kernot’s defection.

After a sustained period of attack, the Party votes out Lees in favour of Stott Despoja in March 2001. Stott Despoja briefly lifts the Democrats an encouraging 2 percentage points until September 2001 when a continuous downward slide begins.

In October 2002 Stott Despoja resigns as leader, down 3.5 percentage points, in the midst of party room and party discord, after conflict between the Democrats National Executive and Lees and after Lees resigns.

New leader Bartlett stabilises the fall but then creates a major behaviour scandal in December 2003 causing the Democrats to slump further to just 1 percentage point in the polls.

In the October 2004 election, for the first time in 11 consecutive federal elections, the Democrats win no Senate seats. Following that result some pollsters start to record the Democrats under “Others”.