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It's no global warming storm in a tea cup!

By Gareth Walton - posted Friday, 4 February 2005


Our climate will warm in a way not seen for at least 10,000 years - the entirety of modern human history. This threatens - if unchecked - to destabilize the world’s weather systems with adverse consequences for society and undermining the very foundations of sustainable development. Weather-related disasters are on the increase - affecting two and a half billion people and inflicting over US$400 billion dollars of damage in the past decade alone.

The International Federation of Red Cross, Preparedness for climate change, 2003.

The summer of 2003 was an event calculated to occur on average every 450 years at most. But there will be such heat periods more and more often in future. Climate scientists have stated that only slight rises in average temperatures can result in significantly greater changes in extreme values. This leads to more heat periods, more record downpours and more thunderstorms. The risk of severe weather and hailstorms also grows disproportionately with each degree that average temperatures climb upwards. The consequences: neither buildings and infrastructure nor the agricultural and livestock sectors are prepared for such extremes. This is why the losses triggered by these increasingly extreme events are so large - and they are becoming more frequent: what we call a 100-year event today, will become a 10-year or 20-year event as a result of climate change.

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Munich Re, Annual Report 2003, 2004(pdf file 2.2MB).

Climate change and the need for action to tackle it are moving up the global agenda for political leaders, industry and the community alike. As people think more about the issue, one of the frequently asked questions is whether we can attribute this major storm or that extremely hot day to human interference with the climate.

The mainstream scientific consensus is that the climate is changing and that human activities - in particular the use of fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas - are the primary cause.

No single storm can be attributed directly to climate change. But, increasingly, scientists are able to detect the unmistakable fingerprints of human-induced climate change in major events, from extreme droughts and heatwaves to global coral bleaching events.

Unfortunately, without significant reductions in greenhouse pollution, these impacts are projected to get more severe and widespread with significant negative economic, social and environmental consequences.

One of the most concerning impacts of climate change is an increase in both the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. The CSIRO says, "Most climate models indicate that in many places global warming is likely to increase the frequency and duration of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts and floods".

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Consistent with the projections of climate change we are already seeing an increase in the frequency and or severity of extreme events both in Australia and overseas. While socioeconomic factors such as the increase in populations living in areas of risk, increased levels of insurance and better reporting of extreme events and their impacts have played a part in this increase, so too has climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s most authoritative scientific body on climate change, has concluded that this trend is in part “linked to climatic factors such as observed changes in precipitation and drought events”, both of which have clearly been shown to have altered as a result of climate change.

They have led the respected World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to state:

The projected changes are expected to significantly alter weather and climate systems. In this regard, the unprecedented weather- and climate-related extreme events such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones in various parts of the world are viewed with concern.

What’s more, scientists are increasingly able to detect the influence of climate change behind extreme events.

For example, scientific research has determined that climate change made the current Australian drought more severe than it otherwise would have been. One of the authors of that research said, “This is the first drought in Australia where the impact of human-induced global warming can be clearly observed”. The drought reduced agricultural output by 30 per cent, caused a 1.6 per cent decrease in GDP and lowered employment by 70,000 jobs.

And a recent study in Nature found that climate change at least doubled the risk of the 2003 heatwave in Europe occurring. According to the Red Cross the heatwave caused at least 22,000 deaths.

A climate expert from Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, said:

We used to talk in terms of floods and heatwaves being one in 100 year events, but in the south of France this year we have had a one in 100 year heatwave, and last month one in 100 year floods - all in the same year. This is climate change happening now.

So what could the future hold for Australia?

There will be an increase in the intensity of heavy rain events in most regions. By 2040 extreme rainfall events which today are 1-in-40 year events become 1-in-15 year occurrences leading to an increase in the already significant damage caused by flooding. Tropical cyclone intensity around Cairns will increase by up to 20 per cent by 2050 . This would result in an area about twice that historically affected, including much of the CBD, being flooded. According to the CSIRO, the number of intense cyclones in Australia has already increased and there has also been a significant increase in average cyclone intensities.

Unsurprisingly, with higher temperatures and reduced water availability droughts will become more frequent and more severe. A recent CSIRO report found the frequency of droughts in NSW could increase by up to 70 per cent by 2030. The frequency, intensity and size of bushfires will all increase. As the recent report from the COAG bushfire inquiry said, “The implications of climate change for bushfires are likely to create substantial economic, social and environmental costs”.

It’s clear that these impacts will have significant economic and social consequences, as well as environmental ones.

And that’s not including impacts such as increased coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, which could become an annual event by 2050, and a reduction in snow cover of between 39 per cent and 96 per cent by 2070, which would have potentially disastrous effects on the tourism industry.

A study by one of the world’s leading reinsurance companies Munich Re has found that the global cost of the impacts of climate change could reach US$300 billion a year by 2050. Much of this cost is due to extreme weather events.

According to the World Health Organisation, climate change was responsible for an estimated 150,000 deaths in 2000. A growth in the threat of extreme weather events as described here will only increase that number.

The science shows that climate change is here now and is already having serious impacts. These impacts are projected to worsen significantly without meaningful action to tackle climate change. Many scientists, including Australia’s own Chief Scientist Dr Robin Batterham, have called for 50-75 per cent reductions in greenhouse pollution by 2050, with the latest research pointing at the higher figure.

Australian governments need to commit to reduce greenhouse emissions by at least 60 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050 and to develop a roadmap to ensure they meet that target. Such a roadmap should include:

  • Supporting development of a stronger renewable energy industry through a mandatory target for clean renewable energy of 10per cent by 2010, 20 per cent by 2020 and further targets beyond that;
  • introducing a stringent energy efficiency target;
  • removing direct and indirect subsidies to fossil fuels; and
  • introducing a revenue neutral carbon levy and or an emission-trading scheme with decreasing cap to establish a price on greenhouse pollution.

Federally, the Australian government should also ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

The politics of climate change might appear stormy at times, but only if we lose sight of the consequences of not acting. As the science shows, we are fast running out of time to act.

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About the Author

Gareth Walton is a climate campaigner with Greenpeace Australia.

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