Where did all the Democrats voters go?

With One Nation's vote in free fall as well as the Democrats, the ALP's vote falling in three of the five mainland states and the swing to the Coalition and Family First, it is difficult to plot with any certainty where the Democrat vote went. The following table seeks to do so, using the following assumptions:

• One Nation's vote returns to the Coalition and ALP in a 60/40 share;
• the Family First/CTA increase comes from the Coalition and Labor in a 70/30 share;
• the "Other Right" vote returns to the Coalition or is sourced from One Nation; and
• the "Other Left" vote is shared between Labor and the Greens.

The following results emerge:

This table suggests that around 40 per cent of former Democrat voters shifted to the Greens, 11 per cent (in SA and NSW) shifted to the ALP and 49 per cent shifted to the Coalition (or Family First or Liberals for Forests). This suggests that Democrat voters departed in near equal numbers to the “left” and the “right”. If the APA and Johnston are counted as “right-of-centre” as well, the percentage going to the right actually rises from 49 per cent to 52 per cent of lost Democrat votes.

While most of the bolters to the right have gone straight to the Coalition, an indeterminate number have opted for other small parties. Some ex-Democrats appear to have voted for the Liberals for Forests, which scored a respectable vote in several states (Victoria 1.57 per cent, Queensland 1.0 per cent, NSW 0.5 per cent, WA 0.5 per cent, SA 0.3 per cent). Some, especially in South Australia, would have shifted to Family First.

Does the “centre” still exist?

I would argue that the centre still exists in Australian politics, and the success of the Australian Democrats over the past three decades has been directly related to our ability to inspire it. Appealing to the centre does not mean being a bland entity wedged onto the tissue paper that now separates Labor and the Coalition on major issues. Being a centre party means appealing to the values of those liberal-progressive people on the “left” and the “right” disillusioned with the bland enticements served up by Labor and the Coalition in their pursuit of an electoral majority. The 1990, 1996, 1998 and 2001 suggest that there are hundreds of thousands of people in that “progressive centre” category who voted for Democrats and similar parties. Yet, in 2004, they deserted us.

It is also noteworthy that the areas of traditional Democrat strength in affluent safe Liberal seats witnessed some of the largest swings against the Coalition in 2004:

• NSW: Despite a state-wide swing to the Coalition, the six Liberal North Shore seats averaged a 2PP swing of 2.7 per cent against the Libs. Of the Democrats 10 best Senate seats in NSW, 6 were on the North Shore and a seventh was Wentworth.
• VIC: Despite a state wide swing of over 3 per cent to the Coalition, the Liberals went backwards in Kooyong and enjoyed a swing of 0.5 per cent or less in the affluent seats of Higgins and Goldstein.
• QLD: The Coalition recorded a state wide swing of 3.3 per cent n its seats, with the smallest swing recorded in blue-ribbon Ryan (0.86 per cent), the Democrats' best seat.
• WA: Despite a state wide swing of 3.76 per cent, the smallest swing to the Liberals was in blue-ribbon Curtin (0.8 per cent).
• SA Despite a state wide swing to the Coalition, there was an average swing against the Coalition of 1.7 per cent in the affluent inner city seats of Adelaide, Boothby, Sturt and Hindmarsh.

The Democrats need to think long and hard about how to appeal to the values of this group, and about the positions and practices which may have alienated potential supporters.

This need not be rocket science - there is plenty of data around about the values and aspirations of the “socially aware” voter group. But, the party must learn from that data. The Liberal Democrats in the UK have been successful in targeting Tory voters and persuading them to support the LDP with similar progressive policies to the Democrats. The most recent MORI Poll (Dec 2004) had the LDP on 23 per cent nationally, just behind the Conservatives on 31 per cent, and up 6 per cent from the 2001 election.