WA Power outages could be Labor's undoing

Gallop has spent too much of his term trying to be a consensus rather than a conviction politician. There is no clearer example of this than the debate on retail trading hours. Gallop now favours freeing up trading hours on Sunday, but he has been reluctant to take a stand on this divisive issue. So he is putting it to a referendum. Perhaps surprisingly to Liberals outside WA, the Coalition opposes opening up trade on Sundays.

Labor won the 2001 election with the help of One Nation preferences, given the latter's strategy to use preferences against sitting MPs. This time One Nation has declined, so Labor needs to lift its primary vote above its 2001 figure of 37 per cent if it is to be competitive. The Electoral Commission's redistribution favours the Coalition, as does the malaportionment favouring rural electorates.

There are 57 seats in the WA Legislative Assembly. Labor holds 32 of them, the Coalition 20, with five held by independents (largely Liberal-leaning). The Coalition could win back as many as four of the independent-held seats, leaving it needing a further five Labor seats to win government. However, it may be that despite being ahead in the polls, the Coalition is unable to get over the line in the seats that matter, bleeding resources fighting independents and three-cornered contests, and from its small business base. Small business will be more concerned with winning the referendum on retail trading hours than a Coalition win at the general poll. The prospect of a hung parliament is a real possibility. If this happens it is likely Liberal-leaning independents would support a Barnett minority government.

The ousting of a one-term government is rare. Since WA's first election in 1890, it has only happened twice. John Tonkin's 1974 Labor government was the last to suffer such ignominy. Before that you have to go back to 1933. Ahead in the polls, the Coalition is the favourite. But the campaign will be close, and as the incumbent the Labor Party is capable of bridging the gap between now and polling day. But it will take a fault-free campaign to do it.