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Matched on mojo, powers to persuade

By Andrew Leigh - posted Tuesday, 21 September 2004


In past decades, Australia has been fortunate to have policy wonks on both sides of politics. In 1972 Gough Whitlam's policy manifesto included 140 specific promises - the most comprehensive election platform ever seen in Australia at the time. In 1982, Labor - largely driven by the intellectual energy of Gareth Evans - produced a series of policy monographs around the theme of "Preparing for Government". And the record for policy entrepreneurship must surely go to John Hewson, who oversaw the production in 1991 of Fightback! - a 650-page policy platform whose executive summary alone ran to 70 pages. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the contents of Fightback!, Hewson's loss at the subsequent election was a body blow for ambitious party platforms. Since 1993, the political wisdom has been that oppositions should present "small targets", offering not bold visions of the future, but small increments on the status quo. It is difficult to imagine that this philosophy does not carry through to the way in which a successful opposition goes on to govern the nation.

There has been less sense of Australia as a bold policy entrepreneur in recent years, even though Howard's eight years have been marked by some strong policy initiatives. In the early days of federation, there was a sense that Australia was the "social laboratory of the world". Social reforms (the minimum wage and the aged pension) and democratic reforms (the secret ballot and the right for women to vote) were implemented in Australia decades before they were put in place in other developed nations. In the 1980s, there were flashes of this: the Higher Education Contribution Scheme and our child support scheme are two policies now being copied. The GST was radical for Australia, and in a broader context it brought us in line with the rest of the developed world. Other initiatives - such as work for the dole, the offshore processing of asylum seekers, or the free trade agreement with America - are more in the nature of incremental amendments to our existing policy infrastructure than bold reforms to bring the rest of the world knocking at our door, asking for policy advice.

Some have also argued that the Howard Government should have done more to engage with voters on matters of economic reform. As Rod Cameron, one of Australia's most prominent pollsters, noted in 1999:

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There were a few brief years in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when ... concerns about the debt, the deficit and the balance of payments really did reach ordinary voters. Times have changed. Macro-economic issues are off the agenda of the general public. And they are off the agenda largely because the Government has stopped forcing them on to that agenda. With the exception of the goods and services tax, the Government is no longer trying to educate the Australian people about the need for continuing reform.

Would a Latham prime ministership be different? It is true that no other federal politician has published so many books, articles and speeches, on so many different topics. Over the campaign, we will discover how many of these ideas have found their way into ALP policies. Latham's other challenge is to weave his many ideas into a consistent story. For the campaign, the "ladder of opportunity" may be sufficient. But if he finds himself in the Lodge, Latham will need to paint on a larger canvas. A committed economic liberal, he will also need to find new ways of engaging with the public on economic matters. From free trade to competition policy, having the right policies will mean little if Latham is unable to articulate the case for economic reform.

So who would make the better leader? If leadership is defined traditionally, as an ability to influence and persuade, then Howard is the better leader. If leadership is providing a crucible for communities to address challenges by themselves, there is little to choose between the two. If leadership means policy entrepreneurship, Latham is likely to be ranked ahead of Howard.

The next three weeks will determine not only who will run the nation, but also how history will remember the two who would be prime minister. Will Howard be remembered as he would like - as the Robert Menzies of his age, carrying his party to repeated electoral success before a graceful mid-term retirement? Or will future generations think of him as Stanley Bruce, prime minister from 1923 until 1929, swept aside because of his uncompromising stance on industrial relations, credited with little by way of policy innovation, and largely forgotten?

And will Latham be remembered as a latter-day Gough Whitlam, his political mentor - a political leader who inspired his own adjective (Whitlamesque) and retains a dedicated following nearly 30 years after leaving office? Or is he destined to become the next H.V. Evatt, the most brilliant Opposition leader never to become prime minister?

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First published in the Sydney Morning Herald, September 16 2004.



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About the Author

Andrew Leigh is the member for Fraser (ACT). Prior to his election in 2010, he was a professor in the Research School of Economics at the Australian National University, and has previously worked as associate to Justice Michael Kirby of the High Court of Australia, a lawyer for Clifford Chance (London), and a researcher for the Progressive Policy Institute (Washington DC). He holds a PhD from Harvard University and has published three books and over 50 journal articles. His books include Disconnected (2010), Battlers and Billionaires (2013) and The Economics of Just About Everything (2014).

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