The Bureau of Meteorology has bombed out yet again

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has done it yet again with more dud seasonal forecasts.  Its reputation is now in tatters, especially in rural Australia. 

Farmers have always paid attention to weather forecasts because livestock prices and crop yields are highly weather dependent.  Furthermore, seasonal outlooks (to the extent that they are known) are an important influence on decisions to buy or sell livestock or sow crops.  Making the right buying, selling and cropping decisions can make a huge difference to farm profitability.  Farmers, however, are now left wondering whether they have been profoundly misled in recent times by the BOM.

The BOM’s repute was already diminished by wasting $96 million on a website overhaul in October 2025, that sparked huge criticism for being user-unfriendly and far inferior to the website it replaced.  The disastrous redesign eventually led to the resignation of the executive responsible, and resulted in many users switching to alternative forecasters, such as Weatherzone. 

The Bureau had also previously lost credibility by failing to predict either the onset of major drought in 2017 or its subsequent breaking in the late summer of 2020.

This year, following a very dry Autumn, the BOM on 28 May 2026 issued its Winter 2026 Long-Range Forecast stating that:

…rainfall is likely to be below average for most central, southern and eastern parts of Australia.  While rainfall is expected to be below average in these regions, there is still a high chance of some rain, with the typical winter rainfall across southern areas being ….25 to 100 mm inland…. El Niño is likely to develop this winter.

For July to September the forecast issued on 11 June 2026 confirmed that:

…rainfallis likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia and temperaturesare likely to be above average in most areas, except parts of the north.  Below average rainfall does not mean no rain – just less than usual. Most models suggest this event is likely to be strong to very strong.  El Niño events usually last 6 to 12 months”.

On 16 June 2026 the BOM went on to announce that:

…the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in an El Niño phase. El Niño events are part of a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather.  El Niño often brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring. But Australia’s weather is also shaped by other climate factors, so outcomes can vary.

The BOM came across as waiting for the elapse of a period of dry weather before being game to announce poor rainfall prospects and an El Niño in late May.  Unfortunately for the BOM, the announcement was almost immediately followed by one of the best late-Autumn/ early-winter breaks in years. 

Eventually, July brought a dry period with savage frosts and little rainfall.  This corresponded with further confirmation by the BOM on 11 August 2026 that “El Niño is firmly established. Both oceanic and atmospheric indices now reflect values consistent with a strong El Niño, with further intensification likely during spring”. 

No sooner than the BOM provided this gloomy reassertion of drought, there was renewed heavy rainfall inland.  Many paddocks (especially in Victoria) are now saturated and a good start to Spring is now certain.  In many cropping areas farmers how expect a bumper harvest because good paddock moisture in August can see a crop though to harvest, even with limited further rainfall.  The Online Young Cattle Indicator also rose 36 per cent, from a low of 409 on 30 April, to 556 on 19 July 2026.

The bottom line is that farmers who believed the gloomy BOM forecasts (implying impending drought) and either sold cattle or failed to plant a crop, would have lost a lot of money.  Having had their fingers burnt by BOM forecasts (on more than one occasion) rural Australians now take seasonal outlook pronunciations with a grain of salt.

The lesson for the BOM can actually be found in its own words, if you search. Their March 2018 Explainer noted that “We're often asked why we only forecast out to 7 days. That's about the maximum length of time we can rely on the accuracy of weather models.  As good as today's weather models are – and they're improving all the time – they're not perfect”.  I think this advice is spot-on, though in very stable conditions meteorologists can project with accuracy for longer.  This all begs the question as to why the BOM issues seasonal forecasts predicting months ahead (albeit with caveats), when they are of dubious accuracy.

Overall, there are few people more dangerous than those who claim to know and advise others, when in fact they don’t know at all.  This applies even more to government organisations like the BOM, who are supposed to be professional, and come close to having an official imprimatur.  The BOM should either stop publishing seasonal outlooks or present them in far more tentative terms.