The Ukraine–Russia war: where things stand at the end of July 2026

Half the year has now passed us by, and it is worth asking ourselves where this war is heading! Certainly, from Ukraine’s perspective, it can be summarised in these three words: Escalation, Innovation and Endurance!

July 2026 marked one of the most significant months of the war since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The front lines barely moved, but the nature of the conflict changed fast. The war ran on two separate levels. Along the front, Russian forces pushed forward with costly attritional assaults that gained very little ground. Far from the battlefield, both countries hammered cities, industry, logistics, and energy infrastructure with long-range strikes. July showed that the outcome will depend less on traditional infantry and armour, and far more on drones, missiles, industrial output, and economic endurance.

Russia kept up pressure across the entire thousand-kilometre front. Heavy fighting concentrated around Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Slovyansk, Kupiansk, and the northern approaches to Kharkiv and Sumy. Russian commanders shifted away from large armoured pushes, relying instead on small assault groups backed by artillery and drone swarms. These tactics occasionally captured local positions, but they failed to produce real operational breakthroughs.

The fighting around Kostyantynivka showed how this played out. Moscow claimed early in the month that the city fell. Independent mappers and analysts quickly verified that the claim was exaggerated. Russian units entered parts of the city, but Ukrainian forces held their ground across much of the urban sector. Elsewhere, Ukrainian troops launched sharp counter-attacks, taking back small settlements and raising the national flag on the Kinburn Spit for the first time since 2022. Gains remained modest, but they proved Ukraine can still grab the initiative when it spots an opening.

Casualties were staggering. Open-source tracking put total Russian personnel losses past 1.44 million by the end of July. Independent assessments showed each square kilometre captured cost Russia over one thousand casualties. Regardless of the precise numbers, Russia paid a brutal human price for tiny territorial gains.

While the ground war ground down, the air war hit a new peak. Russia fired nearly five thousand long-range drones alongside hundreds of cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities and power grids. Kyiv took heavy hits, suffering some of the worst civilian casualty numbers of the year. Ballistic missiles created the biggest threat because Ukraine ran dangerously low on Patriot interceptors. That pressure dragged down Ukraine's air-defence network and wrecked critical infrastructure.

Ukraine hit back with its deepest strike campaign yet. Long-range drones flew more than two thousand kilometres into Russian territory, hitting oil refineries, fuel depots, rail junctions, bridges, airbases, and supply hubs. By late July, analysts estimated Ukraine knocked out twenty to forty per cent of Russia's oil-refining capacity. Moscow had to import extra fuel and pull valuable air-defence systems off the front lines to protect factories back home.

Ukraine's naval operations in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov were hit hard too. Naval drones targeted tankers, tugs, and ships tied to Russia's shadow fleet. Individual vessels were minor targets, but the combined effect hit Moscow where it hurt. Russian fuel transport slowed, commercial shipping costs jumped, and elite air-defence and drone units had to leave the front to guard maritime routes and the Kerch Strait.

Russia retaliated by hitting Ukrainian ports and merchant shipping around Odesa. Missile strikes on cargo ships and port infrastructure cut grain exports and pushed international shipping insurance through the roof. The economic damage spilled past the battle zone, disrupting global food supply chains and gutting Ukraine's export revenue.

Politics in Kyiv shifted as well. President Volodymyr Zelensky shook up key cabinet roles to cut through bureaucracy and speed up military tech development. Firing Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov sparked public protests and triggered debate over the future of defence reform. Fedorov led Ukraine's push into drone warfare and digital military systems, so his exit raised immediate concerns.

The leadership picture cleared up later in the month. General Oleksandr Syrskyi stepped down as Commander-in-Chief, and Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi took over. The move signalled a shift toward flexibility, speed, and tactical adaptation after months of grind. Changing commanders during a war is risky, but Kyiv decided it needed a fresh operational approach.

In late July, massive fires broke out at facilities linked to Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer. Investigators haven't confirmed the exact cause, but the incident exposed how fragile Russia's commercial supply networks are when tied directly to the military war effort. Coupled with Ukrainian strikes on rail lines, warehouses, and fuel stores, the fires proved Russia's internal logistics system is now a main target zone.