Labor set to win next election

Division over Net Zero and energy policies have been at the heart of the Liberal Party's problems in recent years. On the one hand, the "moderates" (and the Teals, many of whom are former Liberals) support Net Zero, often with near religious fervour. The conservatives on the other hand strongly believe that reliance on expensive and intermittent solar and wind generation, and turning the nation's back on coal, oil, and gas is leading to Australia's economic demise and to an unstable electricity grid.

While public opinion within centre-right politics, as demonstrated in the polls, may be shifting to the right (particularly to One Nation), the tide is only slowly changing. Decisive changes in public opinion may not fully happen without a major crisis (e.g. rationing of fuels, electricity blackouts). It will take a pivotal resolution of public opinion on these issues to end Liberal infighting and settle arguments about the merits of "renewables".

Besides the bitter split within the Liberals, there are also acrimonious feelings between the Liberals and Nationals, and between the Coalition partners and One Nation.

The on-again off-again split in the Coalition, largely initiated by the Nationals, further divided the Opposition and contributed to the demise of Sussan Ley. Ironically, because Ley's leadership collapsed first, the more recent election of Matt Canavan as National's leader was too late to prevent support for the party leaking to One Nation.

One Nation's strength has been its policy consistency over time. It has always been against Net Zero, high government spending and high immigration levels, which are of increasing concern among electors. Conservative voters felt they had nowhere else to go when Ley and Littleproud were at the helm.

One Nation, however, also has problems of its own, which may affect the durability of its support.

Pauline Hanson does not come across as Prime Minister material, and her support base is concentrated in regional areas. Diplomacy has never been her long suit, and early in her career she was guilty of intemperate comments about immigration, which greatly offended Australians of Asian descent. One Nation's early economic policies, like 2% Easytax, were also regarded as simplistic.

Hanson's more recent public statements hostile to immigration have potential to turn-off foreign university students. While some of our education industry has been used as a backdoor way of getting a work visa or permanent residence, genuine students provide billions in revenue (built up over decades) that may easily be scared away by antagonistic political comments.

While Hanson has become politically smarter, she is also showing her age and in recent years has increasingly suffered visible stress. Both Hanson and her offsider, Barnaby Joyce, had seemed to be in the twilight of their political careers, except that the problems of the Coalition provided an unexpected resurgence. Joyce himself had suffered a lot of reputational damage from scandals related to his personal life. There were also calls for him to resign from parliament after an incident, where he was found lying on his back in a Canberra street, allegedly mumbling profanities into his phone.

Egos always play an important role in delaying the inevitable and, for a change of government to eventuate, Hanson probably needs to curb her ambitions. Leaders often attempt to stay on past their use-by dates, and one-person-dominated parties generally die with their founders. While One Nation has gained increasing support in regional areas, it is unlikely to win much in the way of seats in the cities.

Bob Hawke once famously remarked that "if you can't govern yourself, you can't govern the country." For the conservative side of politics to have any hope of winning the next election there needs to be strong cooperation between the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation. There is a strong history of enmity between Hanson and the Liberal Party, going right back to the days when John Howard was PM. This will be very hard to overcome. There may be more hope of some sort of reconciliation with the Nationals because Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce seemingly are still on good terms.

While electors may have increasing worries about the Labor Party, its generally astute political judgment is in little doubt. Labor is revelling in the opposition's current disunity, and, while this continues, Labor can be expected to just wait and watch. If the opposition starts to get its act together or (more likely) if the political headwinds develop, a lot of people expect Labor to call an early election. The most likely outcome of such an early election is big losses to the Coalition, a swing to One Nation, and a Labor victory.