AI, datacenters, ignorant politicians: the coming electricity crisis

• Morgan Stanleyestimates that AI is driving a global electricity demand surge set to rise by more than one trillion kilowatt-hours per year globally through 2030, with AI set to make up nearly one fifth of demand.
• Goldman Sachsprojects that data center electricity demand could rise by 165% by 2030.
• Deloitteforecasts U.S. data center power capacity tripling from 4 gigawatts in 2024 to 123 gigawatts by 2035.
• McKinseyreports that electricity demand from data centers is expected to rise significantly and account for more than 10 percent of total US power demand by 2030.

The political blind spot on nuclear

French President â Emmanuel Macron said in his keynote speech at the World Nuclear Energy summit in Paris in March this year that France offers the clearest answer. It is the world's largest net exporter of clean electricity, generating over €3 billion annually from exporting surplus low-carbon, nuclear-powered electricity to its neighbors. France gets roughly 70% of its electricity from nuclear power. The lights stay on. The emissions stay low. Bills for electricity remain manageable.

In France, last ​year, they exported 90 terawatt-hours of decarbonized electricity. Thanks ​to their nuclear ​plants, they have the ability ‌to â open data centers, to build computing capacity, to be at the ​heart ​of â the artificial intelligence challenge.

Preaching zero-emissions, blocking zero-emissions power

The contradiction at the heart of modern energy policy is this: politicians who loudly demand zero-emissions electricity have, in practice, enacted the policies most hostile to the one source that reliably delivers it.

California is the most dramatic example. The state has ambitious zero-emissions electricity targets. It has also opposed natural gas plants, coal plants, and nuclear plants. Essentially every form of continuous, dispatchable electricity generation. It sends large delegations to COP climate conferences while depending on neighboring states to keep its grid stable. The state is becoming a national security risk for the entire country.

'Net zero' leaders in California have even pushed to shutter the States' last remaining zero-emissions electricity-generating plant, a nuclear facility at Diablo Canyon, while simultaneously lamenting the absence of clean power on the grid. The green line for nuclear power in the Energy Institute's global chart didn't expand because political leaders never supported electricity wisdom conversations. The political narrative moved from nuclear to wind and solar, and thirty years of investment followed the consensus narrative rather than the physics.

Electricity is a service, not merely a product. It must be available on demand 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, at the correct frequency, voltage, phase, and current. This is the physical reality governed by the laws of thermodynamics and electromagnetism. Supply and demand must balance instantaneously, or the grid collapses.

What the AI boom demands

Intermittent electricity from breezes and sunshine does not meet the specification for the 99,999% uptime requirements needed for the technological future. These are not ideological decisions. They are engineering decisions. Speed, reliability, and 24/7 availability are what data centers require. Nuclear power is fundamental to a secure electricity future. It is by far the best electricity choice. The biggest obstacle is government.

China appears to have understood the need for continuous and uninterruptible electricity. It is forecast to become the world's largest nuclear power market. China's HTR-PM, the world's first commercially operating small modular reactor (SMR), has been generating electricity at Shidaowan in Shandong Province since December 2023, having passed world-first inherent safety demonstrations that confirmed the reactor can cool itself passively with no human intervention and no emergency systems.