Voters will keep voting Labor, even when dissatisfied

After Labor's 2025 election win Labor Party President Wayne Swan said that Labor's win was 'wide but shallow'.

Our latest poll backs him up with most voters believing Labor does not deserve to be in office while at the same time still saying they would vote Labor for a Labor government at an election.

I've learned a lot from watching Wayne Swan over the years when he has run Labor campaigns. He's someone who knows how to make his own luck, but he's also been the beneficiary of luck. This Labor government also appears to be lucky.

Labor says the Coalition has a woman problem. They certainly do in our poll, but it's not the one Labor is pointing at.

Our poll was taken while Sussan Ley was Leader of the Opposition. That was their first piece of luck. Her approval across the board was only 7 per cent with 65 per cent disapproving rating.

Most tellingly, her net approval with Coalition voters was -52 per cent, which is worse than it was with Labor voters at -37 per cent (although there was undoubtedly a factor for Labor supporters of not wanting to interrupt their enemy while they were making a mistake). Only 1 per cent of One Nation voters approved of Sussan Ley, compared to 86 per cent who disapproved.

So, that is the Liberal Party's first so-called 'woman' problem…

The second comes in the shape of the former Fish and Chip shop proprietor from Ipswich, Pauline Hanson… At the time our poll was taken, One Nation was the second largest political party by vote in the country, and as far as I can tell, still is.

This splits the vote on the right.

42 per cent of voters said they usually vote Coalition and only 4 per cent usually vote One Nation. With the Coalition on 21 per cent and One Nation on 22 per cent and Labor steady there has obviously been a major transfer of votes from mostly the Coalition to One Nation.

Worse for the Coalition, not only does Hanson get a higher net approval rating overall than Ley at -22 per cent, but 59 per cent of Coalition voters approve of her (versus 11 per cent for Ley) and only 19 per cent disapprove (versus 63 per cent for Ley). Coalition voters also think One Nation deserves to be in government before their own party. Only 16 per cent of Coalition voters agree their side deserves to be in government versus 60 per cent who disagree. 22 per cent of Coalition voters agree One Nation deserves to be in government versus 54 per cent who disagree.

Overall, Labor wins the contest of who deserves to win an election with a net of -7 per cent agreeing they do. One Nation is on -44 per cent and the Liberals on -80 per cent.