Ukraine-Russia war in 2026 – where do we now stand?

By January 2026, the full-scale war that began on 24 February 2022 had entered its fourth calendar year. Despite sustained Ukrainian resistance and remarkable international support, fighting across eastern and southern Ukraine remained fierce and destructive.

From Kyiv's vantage point, January was a microcosm of the wider conflict's persistent characteristics: Russia's relentless pressure through missiles, drones, and artillery; Ukraine's determined defence and limited counter-actions; a humanitarian crisis deepened by winter conditions; political and diplomatic activity at the highest levels; and ongoing international engagement.

Although hopes sometimes surged about breakthrough negotiations or decisive battlefield success, Ukraine faced the stark reality that the war continued to exact a heavy toll on its people, infrastructure, economy, and armed forces. At the same time, Ukrainians continued to see signs of resilience and strategic gains - in diplomacy, international commitments, and domestic innovation.

Military dynamics in January 2026 - frontline stalemate with local shifts

The military situation in January 2026 was defined less by sweeping territorial changes and more by incremental pressure and attrition. Neither side achieved a decisive breakthrough, although fighting ebbed and flowed in discrete sectors.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and near Kharkiv, grinding forward in places like Dronivka, Kleban-Byk, and Mala Tokmachka - albeit slowly - and engaging Ukrainian positions around Slovyansk and other points of resistance. This reflected a pattern of methodical advances where Russian forces aim to pressure Ukrainian defences and secure small tactical gains rather than pursue rapid deep thrusts.

Ukrainian forces persisted in defensive operations and local counter-actions. Though Ukraine was not on the offensive at the scale seen in some earlier phases of the war, limited actions around Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka illustrated efforts to regain initiative where possible.

Air and missile campaigns - casualties and operational strain

One of the defining features of the month was Russia's continued reliance on long-range strikes and drone barrages. Across January, Russian forces launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure, cities, and logistical hubs. The scale was often staggering: dozens of ballistic missiles, hypersonic cruise missiles, and hundreds of Shahed and other attack drones were reported in combined assaults over multiple nights.

Ukraine's air defences performed credibly in many of these engagements, downing a majority of incoming threats - but not all. Where interceptors failed to stop munitions, missiles and drones damaged electrical grids, heating infrastructure, and civilian buildings across Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and other regions. The result was widespread power outages and profound hardship for civilians during a winter cold snap.

Accurate casualty figures in real time are hard to confirm independently; however, open estimates suggest heavy attrition on both sides. Russia continued to suffer disproportionately high losses relative to gains, with some monitoring groups estimating Russian personnel and equipment casualties at levels that outstrip most modern conventional conflicts.

Ukraine also faced significant battlefield attrition and severe personnel pressures, especially as the war's duration continued to wear on recruiting, retention, and force sustainability. These dynamics informed strategic debate within Kyiv and among partners about force composition, mobilization priorities, and longer-term manpower strategies.

Tactical and technology trends

Beyond sheer numbers, the nature of the conflict increasingly underscored the importance of unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and layered air defence. Both sides used drones aggressively: Russia with swarms aimed at infrastructure and Ukraine with strike UAVs targeting Russian logistics and air defences. Russian mid-range systems were reportedly capable of hitting targets deep within Ukraine, revealing an escalation in technological adaptation.

For Ukraine, this presented both opportunities and vulnerabilities. On one hand, drones offered asymmetric capability to strike inside Russian lines; on the other, they forced Ukraine to allocate scarce air defence missiles to protect critical infrastructure, complicating resource prioritization.

Humanitarian impact

January ushered in one of the harshest winters of the war so far. Russia's drone and missile campaign, focused on energy networks, left millions without reliable heat, electricity, or water during freezing temperatures. In the capital Kyiv alone, tens of thousands of homes were without heating for days; service restoration became a daily priority, often outpaced by fresh attacks.

Additional Russian drone strikes claimed civilian lives and wounded others. Notably, a drone strike near Dnipro killed at least 12 mineworkers returning home from their shift, and separate attacks wounded civilians, including women and children, at a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian authorities condemned these as deliberate attacks on noncombatants.

Just surviving the winter became a central theme of civilian life. In front-line cities like Kherson, residents adapted by moving daily life underground - with schools, clinics, and recreational activities conducted in bomb shelters and basements to escape artillery, drones, and mines.

The ongoing strain of the conflict also manifested through prisoner treatment concerns, with reports of systematic abuse of Ukrainian POWs in Russian detention - a humanitarian and legal issue that Kyiv continued to spotlight internationally.

Diplomacy and international engagement

January 2026 saw one of the most intense diplomatic efforts since the beginning of the full-scale invasion: trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States held in Abu Dhabi. The meetings were notable for several reasons. They were rare - drawing three governments into direct negotiation - and they were backed by high-level engagement from global powers hoping to prevent further escalation or gain progress toward ending the war.

Unsurprisingly, the talks produced no immediate peace deal. The primary stumbling block remained Russia's refusal to withdraw troops from occupied territories and its insistence on maximalist political demands - including claims over Donetsk and other regions. Ukrainian and American representatives stressed that territorial integrity and withdrawal were non-negotiable starting points for peace.

Security guarantees and strategic support - international aid and sanctions

In the backdrop of diplomacy, Ukraine and the United States finalized security guarantees - a political and strategic milestone in early 2026. This signalled a deepening of bilateral defence commitments, providing Kyiv with assurances for long-term support that extend beyond ordinary military aid packages. These guarantees aimed to strengthen Ukraine's deterrence posture and long-term defence planning.

Western governments continued to enforce and expand sanctions on Russia to degrade Moscow's economic and military capacity. At the same time, deliveries of air-defence systems, armoured vehicles, ammunition, and financial aid to Ukraine persisted. Western leaders publicly reiterated commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty, even as debates over the pace and scope of support continued among allied capitals.

Economic and social context

Ukraine's economy in January 2026 wrestled with multiple challenges: disrupted energy supplies, damaged industrial and transport infrastructure, constrained agricultural exports, and the costs of sustaining a long-term war effort. Energy insecurity, driven by Russian strikes and compounded by winter conditions, amplified both economic and human hardship.

Social cohesion remained strong in many communities, with local organizations and volunteers supplementing government relief efforts. Nonetheless, the cumulative strain of four years of conflict shaped daily life for millions, especially those in frontline or heavily damaged regions.

Within Ukraine, public discourse in January dealt with a mix of endurance, scepticism, determination, and hope. President Zelensky and other leaders articulated cautious optimism - for example, suggesting peace could be achievable within a timeframe measured in months rather than years - but grounded this hope in pragmatic assessments of battlefield realities and diplomatic hurdles.

Ukrainian civil society continued to highlight war costs - civilian deaths, infrastructure loss, and human suffering - while also rallying around narratives of resilience, resistance, and national solidarity.

Strategic outlook: Ukraine's assessment

By the end of January 2026, several themes emerge that Ukrainians see as shaping the immediate future of the conflict:

1. Attrition and defence over breakthroughs: The war has entered a phase where attrition and resilience matter more than rapid territorial change. Ukraine's ability to hold the line and absorb attacks is a continuing testament to its military professionalism and national resolve.

2. International support remains critical: Diplomatic engagement and material aid, especially from the U.S. and European partners, is absolutely indispensable. Ukraine awaits new security guarantees which represent a promising, albeit long-term, development.

3. Humanitarian hardship: The winter months intensify civilian suffering and highlight the urgent need for more effective protection of infrastructure and populations.

4. Negotiations without compromise on core principles: Peace talks offer a platform for dialogue, but Ukraine's leadership maintains that peace cannot and will not come at the cost of sovereignty or territorial concessions.

5. Technological evolution of warfare: The continued innovation and adaptation of unmanned systems, air defence networks, and cyber capabilities underscore that modern technological trends would be central to the conflict in 2026 and beyond.

January 2026 demonstrated the war's enduring brutality and complexity. For Ukraine, it was a month marked by tenacious defence against a relentless adversary, by intricate diplomacy that both advanced and exposed fault lines in international efforts, and by profound humanitarian hardship endured by ordinary citizens.

From Kyiv's standpoint, the war's continuation into its fourth year is not a defeat but evidence of a campaign defined by resilience, solidarity, and unyielding commitment to national survival. The balance of 2026 remains uncertain, but even in the midst of grinding conflict, Ukraine's leaders and its people continue to chart a course aimed at securing sovereignty, dignity, and lasting peace.