Crunch time for Trump on Judea and Samaria (West Bank)

President Trump's long overdue decision – promised in March - on the future of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) – could be revealed during his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) at the White House on 18 November.

MBS seems insistent that he will not agree to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords unless there is a pathway to creating a Palestinian state between Israel and Jordan.

President Trump challenged MBS's stance when responding to Norah O'Donnell on 2 November:

NORAH O'DONNELL: I wanted to ask you about the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is coming to the White House

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: That's right

NORAH O'DONNELL: --this month. He has said they won't join the Abraham Accords without a two-state solution. Do you believe that?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: No. I think he's gonna join. I-- I think-- we will have a solution. I don't know if it's gonna be two-state. That's gonna be up to Israel and other people, and me.

Israel's Knesset rejected a two-state solution west of the Jordan River by a majority of 68 votes to 9 on 18 July 2024:

The Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel would pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilize the region.

It will only be a matter of a short time until Hamas takes over the Palestinian state and turns it into a radical Islamic terror base that operates in coordination with the Iranian-led axis to eliminate the State of Israel. Promoting the idea of a Palestinian state at this time would be a reward for terrorism and would only encourage Hamas and its supporters, who will view this as a victory thanks to the massacre of October 7, 2023, and a prelude to the takeover of jihadist Islam in the Middle East

With Trump expected to respect the Knesset's decision – Trump's vision for allocating sovereignty in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) - 4% of former Palestine - appears limited to adopting one of the following two options:

• Backing Israel claiming sovereignty in the entire territory of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) - which Trump has already promised Arab and Muslim leaders he will not allow

OR

• Calling for the allocation of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) between Israel and Jordan – the two successor states to the 1922 League of Nations Mandate for Palestine – both States already exercising sovereignty in 95% of the territory of former Palestine designated in the Mandate.

This latter option was indeed proposed in a solution emanating from Saudi Arabia in March 2020 entitled The Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine solution (HKOPS) authored by Ali Shihabi - an advisor to MBS - and intended as a response to Trump's 2020 "Deal of the Century" .

HKOPS lapsed when Trump's proposal stalled.

HKOPS was subsequently amended and resurrected on 8 June 2022 and published in the Saudi Government-controlled Al Arabiya News – with further material amendments being made on 19 June 2022.

HKOPS 2020 and 2022 versions both called for abandoning any two-state solution and have the imprimatur of MBS stamped all over them.

Implementing HKOPS 2022 in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) boils down to redrawing the existing international border between Israel and Jordan – with no one – Jew or Arab – having to leave his current residence.

Agreement between Trump and MBS on implementing HKOPS 2022 could see:

• Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and
• Materially advance an end to the unresolved 100 years-old Jewish-Arab conflict