The 2026 US midterm elections and the future of American support for Ukraine

The 2026 United States midterm elections are poised to become a decisive moment in shaping Washington's foreign policy, particularly regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. Following a period of strained relations and fluctuating military assistance during President Donald Trump's second term, the political composition of Congress after November 2026 could fundamentally alter the trajectory of US engagement in Eastern Europe. If Democrats regain control of one or both chambers of Congress, they would likely reassert strong bipartisan and institutional backing for Kyiv, reversing recent reductions in aid and signalling a renewed American commitment to defending democratic values abroad.

The most recent local elections in 2025 revealed significant Republican setbacks, as Democrats achieved sweeping victories across major US cities and key governorships. These results suggest growing voter disillusionment with the GOP's internal divisions and its association with Trump's polarising leadership. Should these trends persist into the 2026 midterms, Democrats have a realistic chance of reclaiming control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. Such a shift would not remove Trump from office but would critically constrain his authority, especially in foreign policy and defence. Congress wields powerful tools to shape national security through control of the budget, appropriations, and oversight functions. A Democratic resurgence could therefore reinvigorate US support for Ukraine and restore predictability to Washington's global posture.

Trump's Ukraine policy: a strategic retrenchment

Since returning to the White House in January 2025, President Trump has markedly reduced US involvement in Ukraine. He has repeatedly paused or cancelled previously approved military aid packages, citing concerns about domestic stockpile depletion and the financial burden of prolonged overseas commitments. His administration replaced the rapid Presidential Drawdown Authority, used extensively under President Biden, with a slower NATO-based framework known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). These bureaucratic changes have limited the flow of weapons and equipment to Kyiv. Reports of tense exchanges between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including suggestions that Ukraine should cede the Donbas region to Russia, have further strained relations. Consequently, total US assistance has fallen sharply from Biden-era levels of approximately $200 billion, comprising military, financial, and humanitarian aid, over three years, to a fraction of that amount.

Potential impact of a Democratic congress

If Democrats regain control of Congress in 2026, one of their most powerful instruments for influencing Ukraine policy would be the federal budget. Congress holds the constitutional "power of the purse," allowing it to allocate and direct funds even when the executive branch is resistant. A Democratic majority could enact binding appropriations requiring specific levels of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. While President Trump could attempt to delay the release of these funds, such action would risk violating spending laws and provoking political backlash. The precedent is clear: even the Republican-led Senate in 2025 approved $1 billion in Ukraine support with broad bipartisan consensus. A Democratic Congress would likely expand on this model, introducing multi-year funding to ensure consistent aid and prioritising the swift delivery of defensive systems.

In addition to its financial authority, Congress could legislate new constraints on presidential discretion regarding aid distribution. A Democratic majority might pass laws preventing the president from freezing or cancelling assistance without formal justification, thereby institutionalising safeguards against political interference. Although President Trump could veto such legislation, a sufficiently united Congress - especially one drawing support from pro-Ukraine Republicans - could override the veto. Similar bipartisan cooperation has emerged in the past, notably in defence spending and NATO-related votes, where lawmakers set aside partisan divides to protect strategic US interests abroad.

A Democratic Congress would also likely enhance oversight and accountability concerning Ukraine policy. Through investigative hearings and committee inquiries, legislators could scrutinise any delays, diversions, or mismanagement of funds within the executive branch. Such oversight would not only compel greater transparency from the administration but also reassure Ukraine and America's NATO allies that congressional intent is being upheld. By ensuring that appropriated funds are delivered promptly and effectively, Congress would reaffirm the reliability of the United States as a global partner committed to democratic defence.

Finally, an empowered Congress could act decisively to remove bureaucratic bottlenecks that have slowed aid transfers under the Trump administration. Legislative directives could compel the Pentagon and State Department to streamline delivery mechanisms, eliminating red tape that has hindered the shipment of essential systems such as Patriot interceptors, HIMARS launchers, and advanced ammunition. By reducing administrative delays, a Democratic-controlled Congress would not only accelerate Ukraine's access to critical military resources but also demonstrate the efficiency and resolve of US governance in moments of international crisis.

The strategic case for renewed US support

Many Democrats, and a significant number of Republicans, view the defence of Ukraine as essential to preserving the international rules-based order. A withdrawal of US support would not only jeopardise Ukrainian sovereignty but would also embolden authoritarian regimes elsewhere. A Democratic Congress could reaffirm that US aid is not merely an act of generosity but a strategic investment in European stability and global democracy.

A reinvigorated US commitment to Ukraine would likely restore the scale and intensity of assistance seen during the Biden administration. Annual military aid could return to levels between $50 and $65 billion, providing Ukraine with the material strength necessary to sustain its defence and counteroffensive operations. Equally important would be the introduction of multi-year funding commitments extending through 2027 and 2028. Such predictability would allow Kyiv to plan long-term strategies with confidence, reducing its dependence on short-term political cycles in Washington and signalling to both allies and adversaries that US support is enduring.

Beyond financial and military aid, renewed US engagement would likely involve expanded air defence and logistical support to enhance Ukraine's battlefield resilience and protect civilian populations from continued Russian missile attacks. Politically and diplomatically, Washington's backing would reinforce Ukraine's sovereignty by opposing any settlement involving coerced territorial concessions. Together, these measures would not only strengthen Ukraine's ability to defend itself but also reaffirm the United States' broader commitment to upholding international law, deterring aggression, and sustaining the global democratic order.

Limits of congressional influence

Despite these possibilities, even a Democratic-controlled Congress would face structural limits. The President retains significant authority over foreign policy implementation, including the timing of aid delivery and the conduct of diplomatic negotiations. Trump could still obstruct or delay assistance through bureaucratic channels or executive orders. Nonetheless, Congress possesses tools to counter such obstruction, chiefly through conditional appropriations, public pressure, and the threat of impeachment if aid were unlawfully withheld. The likely outcome would be a tense but functional equilibrium: a Democratic Congress pressing assertively for Ukraine's defence, and a resistant executive gradually compelled to yield under political and legal pressure.

Conclusion

The 2026 US midterm elections will not only determine the balance of domestic political power but may also redefine America's moral and strategic posture on the global stage. A Democratic resurgence in Congress would almost certainly strengthen Ukraine's position, restoring predictable and substantial US assistance while reaffirming that America remains steadfast in the defence of freedom and sovereignty. For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher. Democratic control of Congress would mean renewed lifelines of military aid, diplomatic support, and moral solidarity. For the United States, it would reaffirm a long-standing principle: that the defence of democracy abroad is inseparable from its preservation at home.