Suspending US-Kosovo dialogue - a rude awakening for Kurti

The suspension of the US-Kosovo dialogue marks the sharpest strain in the two countries' relations since Kosovo's independence in 2008. From NATO's 1999 intervention to Washington's decisive role in recognition, Kosovo's fate has always been dependent on US support, and American diplomacy has shielded Pristina from Serbian obstruction and Russian vetoes at the UN. Now that the shield is fractured, the risks for Kosovo are significant.

The tension between the two countries has been simmering for several years due to Kurti's continuing resistance to the US's and the EU's policy recommendations, which could have brought Kosovo closer to normalizing relations with Serbia while making substantial socio-economic progress at home. Now Kurti faces an uphill battle. None of the major opposition parties are willing to join him in forming a government, his public popularity is increasingly dimming, and the US and the EU-Kosovo's irreplaceable backers-reject his domestic and foreign policies and strong nationalist orientation.

The US considers Kurti a significant factor in the rising instability in Serb-majority areas and blames him for the lack of government reforms, which raised concerns over the dialogue with Serbia and stalled progress on normalization. Kurti rejected several US-brokered proposals that could have moved the dialogue forward. He is seen as a nationalist who focuses excessively on Kosovo's sovereignty, neglecting the urgent needs for economic development, weeding out corruption at the top, and making Kosovo attractive for foreign investors.

What adds insult to injury is Kurti's lack of political savviness. Kurti unwisely interfered in the electoral process during the US presidential campaign in 2020 by publicly endorsing Biden, which infuriated Trump. Making things worse, in 2024, Kurti decided to participate in the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in a panel discussion entitled "National Democratic Convention and the Role of Political Parties," which obviously did not sit well with Trump, and may also have contributed to the US suspension of the dialogue.

Kurti's relations with the EU did not fare much better. The EU's frustration with Kurti finally reached a tipping point when the EU imposed sanctions on Kosovo and suspended high-level meetings with Kurti in 2023. Many of Kurti's domestic and foreign policies put him at odds with the EU, including imposing 100 percent tariffs on Serbian goods, while taking unilateral actions to exert control over Serb-majority areas without consultation.

Furthermore, he refused to implement the Association of Serb Municipalities, which the EU considered essential for normalizing relations with Serbia. He has publicly dismissed or downplayed advice from the EU and the US, insisting on a "Kosovo first" approach, using strong, provocative nationalist rhetoric. He is also being blamed for the political uncertainty, especially since the February election, while serving as caretaker prime minister.

Lack of political savviness

Sadly, Kurti failed the test of statesmanship. When a country experiences rising political tension domestically and internationally, statesmanship becomes vital to its future and well-being. Kurti has thus far failed to show statesmanship when it was needed the most. True statesmanship involves a kind of foresight and the capacity to adapt, seeing beyond the present moment to preserve the future. Kurti's preoccupation with trivial, conflicting issues with the ethnic Serbs and his inability or unwillingness to cooperate and compromise with his principal backers-the US and the EU-have glaringly demonstrated his lack of statesmanship.

In The Republic, Plato talked about the concept of the "philosopher king." He suggested that a true statesman is someone who has a kind of wisdom and vision that ordinary leaders lack. The same sentiment was echoed by Edmund Burke, the philosophical father of modern conservatism, who once remarked, "A state without the means of some change is without the means of conservation." To be sure, statesmanship is about seeing deeper and leading with that broad vision, which Kurti seems to lack sorely.

The prospect of forming a new government

Although Kurti's party, Vetevendosje, won a relative majority in the February elections, he could not form a new coalition government, as the main opposition parties, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), refused to join him. Now, after eight months of political squabbles, he was finally able to confirm his nominee for speaker of the parliament, which was a prerequisite to forming a new government; nevertheless, he still is struggling to form a government, and his chances of doing so are dwindling.

Although the opposition parties can theoretically form a coalition government consisting of PDK, LDK, and other small parties, they are even less likely to succeed because of a long-simmering political divide between them on both domestic and foreign policy.

For Kurti, the question is where he should go from here. Given the political divide and the unlikelihood that either Kurti or the opposition parties can form a new government, it would be wise for Kurti to call for new elections. This would be the ultimate test for Kurti's personal and political standing. Indeed, if he believes that his performance as prime minister in his first four-year term was a success, and that his political agenda and ideological orientation are what the people want, he should not be concerned about the result of a new election. However, if the public rejects him, it only indicates that his policies and vision of the country's future are unaligned with the public's needs and expectations. Thus, he must accept the public's verdict.

The path forward

Any new leader who eventually succeeds in forming a new government, including Kurti, must first and foremost take several measures to ease the tension and show the US and the EU, who are the ultimate guarantors of Kosovo's national security and are vested in Kosovo's sovereignty, that Kosovo is ready for normalization. No new prime minister can afford to dismiss the advice and consent of Kosovo's main benefactors and expect it to become a truly independent country, à la an EU member state.