Dan Andrews appearance at Chinese 80th Victory Commemoration a sign of Australian foreign policy change

The Australian government has announced it will support the recognition of a Palestinian State at the United Nations when it is voted upon later this month. This runs contrary to US policy and can be seen as a major drift away from the alliance. Australia traditionally has been closely aligned with the US in the United Nations, but there is great difference on Palestine, which has led Australia to vote differently on a number of occasions.

Moreover, Australia felt militarily vulnerable when a Chinese naval taskforce circumnavigated Australia, conducting live fire exercises without any interdiction assistance by the US earlier this year. This was a clear illustration of the uselessness of any alliance if an attack came upon the Australian mainland. The way the US handled the tariff issues with Australia, a good and loyal ally left a lot to be desired.

India's pivot towards China rips apart The QUAD strategic alliance between Australia, India, Japan and South Korea. It appears to be a totally useless alliance now.

The September 3 military parade showed off some of China's latest weapons for the first time, which totally destroy the strategic logic of AUKUS once and for all. Australian nuclear-powered submarines will not be able to defend Australia against Dongfeng-5C and Dongfeng-61 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching Australia, Julang-3 ICBM missile carrying submarines, and wide range of drone aircraft and submarines.

This requires a total foreign and defence policy rethink on the part of Australia. AUKUS may still exist on paper, but the spirit of AUKUS is now gone. This is why Dan Andrews visit to Beijing and symbolically standing up beside China was so symbolically important. The future of the Australian-US alliance is clouded in uncertainty, created in a time long passed by.

The ALP Socialist Left policy on China goes back to Gough Whitlam. Whitlam preferred engagement rather than the isolation of China, and at the same time was suspicious of the Australian-US alliance. China is seen as a critical partner for Australia's economic and regional interests. The Socialist Left is dismissive of alarmist narratives about China, still holding some of the Jim Cairns naïve sympathy he had during his time as a politician in the 60s and 70s, although the activities of the Chinese United Front Work Department have made things much more complex today.

Anthony Albanese has come under criticism for Andrews' trip to China, although he has deflected some of this through stating Andrews was on a private trip. The truth is more likely that Andrews was there to consolidate clear channels for future discussions. Andrews' visit was by no means an accident, but rather subdued diplomacy without announcing future intentions and gaining attention from the United States State Department. Australia is far from ready for a diplomatic spat with the Trump administration.

From that point of view, Andrews was one of the few people Albanese could send. Bob Carr may have attracted too much attention. Paul Keating would have alerted the media to what is going on. This is all going on outside the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFAT), with only a few people in a very close circle in the know.

It looks like there will be a major pivot in Australian foreign policy in progress. However, for the reasons stated above it must be undertaken in a 'softly softly' manner, due to the current political and institutional realities of Australia. However, this may playout to be the largest policy change Australia has ever made. Back in 1971, Whitlam visited China and in the next year the Australian government formally recognized China. In 2025, Andrews visited China, signifying Australia's recognition of its central place in the emerging multi-polar world.