Thailand and Cambodia agree to an immediate ceasefire in border fighting

Ly Yong Phat is a senator for Koh Kong Province and a close advisor of Hun Sen. The targeting of scam centres inside the Cambodian and the ongoing feud between Hun Sen and the Shinawatra family hint at some of the underlying reasons for the fighting.

The Thai armed forces had over the last four days focused on targeting scam centres and attacked the operations owned by Kok An, another close associate of Hun Sen. Electricity and communications cables to a casino and money laundering centre in Poi Pet going underground to the Thai side were also cut during the conflict.

The above issues were not touched upon during the talks in Kuala Lumpur.

There are over 140,000 people displaced through evacuation in Ubon Rattathani, Sisaket, and Suring provinces. Due to the sparse population and small number of villages on the Cambodian side, much less were displaced.

Can the cease fire hold?

The agreement in Kuala Lumpur is very much an interim ceasefire.

The acting Thai prime minister must now brief the leader of the 2^nd Army Lt General Boonsin Padklang, who very much is his own man and will operationally call the shots on the ground. The Cambodian prime minister must brief his father Hun Sen, who is personally running the military side.

The Thai public may not accept the cease fire very well, if Cambodia is seen to 'get off the hook' for the damage done. The civilian government may be heavily criticized for this. Seeing Phumtham Wechayachi shaking hands with Hum Manet could be enough to bring down the Pheu Thai party.

Thus, any final decisions about how strong the cease fire will depend upon those two leaders, not the two prime ministers. The battle theatres have been left in a situation, where it will be very easy for any side to "create' a mishap that could easily lead to fighting once again.

This is why it was very important to have Chinese Government representation at the meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. The Chinese will be more influential than either the US or Malaysia in the next few days.

If both Thailand and Cambodia follow the protocol developed in Kuala Lumpur, this would be a much-needed win for ASEAN, which prime minister Anwar Ibrahim could take some credit. However, the underlying causes of the clashes are not truly political or historical, as many pundits have been saying.

The Cambodian economy is hurting very badly, especially after the scamming operations have been seriously checked. Thailand is interested in securing some geographical high ground, in order to be able to fight off any surprise attack more easily.

Physically, it will be very difficult for observers to patrol this 400 km part of the border. Its not justice the border that must be monitored, but overflying rockets into civilian areas as well. There will be many issues in territory demarcation.