Serbia’s massive protest: challenges and opportunities for Vučić

The EU should also engage civil society groups and opposition leaders to gain a better grasp of the situation on the ground and support a broad range of voices calling for democratic change. The EU can further use its leverage to ensure the continuation of the reforms as a precondition to furthering Serbia's integration.

The EU wants to lure Serbia out of Russia's orbit by substantially expanding economic ties. Belgrade and the European Union signed a deal on July 19, 2024, to give the EU access to raw materials, especially lithium mined in Serbia, to produce sustainable raw materials and reduce its dependence on China. Germany's Chancellor Scholz described the deal as being necessary for Europe "to remain sovereign in a changing world..." Late last year, Serbia signed a contract to purchase jetfighters from France, which Macron described as "historically significant," and even canceled its contracts for Russian weapons in January.

Notwithstanding the absence of progress in the past and the continuing unrest, the EU should continue to promote the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, albeit it has been challenging and has faced numerous setbacks, with tensions remaining high over Kosovo's independence and the status of ethnic Serbs in Kosovo. Against this backdrop, the EU must balance its desire for regional stability with the need to push Vučić to undertake democratic reforms and support an inclusive political process.

The unprecedented unrest in Serbia, which could destabilize other Balkan states, presents an opportunity for the EU not only to work closely with Vučić but also to pressure him to address the public's grievances and show flexibility in the dialogue with Kosovo, which would strengthen EU-Serbia ties. Vučić himself could emerge from the ongoing protest in a stronger position domestically if he only heeds the EU's recommendations, which would help him advance the process of integration into the European Union that he seeks.