Zelensky, Trump, and the fate of Ukraine: a study in power, personality, and peril

Three years into Russia's devastating war against Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a challenge that may eclipse even the initial decision to stand and fight against Vladimir Putin's invasion in February 2022. This challenge is not merely the relentless Russian aggression that has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions, and reduced cities to rubble, but a deeply personal and politically charged feud with Donald Trump, the newly re-elected U.S. president and leader of Ukraine's most vital ally. In examining what Zelensky can do to salvage his relationship with Trump and save Ukraine, several intertwined themes must be looked at: the fragility of alliances strained by personal animosity, the transactional nature of Trump's foreign policy, the looming spectre of Russian influence, and the existential stakes for Ukraine's sovereignty and survival. These themes collectively underscore the precarious tightrope Zelensky must walk to secure his nation's future.

The fragility of alliances: a personal feud with global consequences

At the heart of the narrative is the deteriorating relationship between Zelensky and Trump, a clash that transcends policy disagreements and devolves into a personal grudge match with potentially catastrophic implications. Trump's public attacks - labelling Zelensky a "dictator" who "started" the war and avoiding any rebuke of Putin - signal a radical departure from decades of U.S. support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. Zelensky's retort, accusing Trump of being ensnared in a Russian "disinformation bubble," only deepens the rift. This feud threatens to unravel the trust necessary for Kyiv to negotiate a peace deal that preserves its security and autonomy. Ukraine cannot afford to quarrel with Trump, yet earning his respect seems extremely difficult now, but not impossible. This personal animosity jeopardizing strategic alliances highlights the human element in geopolitics - where ego and emotion can override national interests - and places Zelensky in a position where diplomatic finesse is as critical as military resilience.

Transactional diplomacy: power plays and mineral wealth

Trump's foreign policy embodies a transactional approach that mirrors Putin's worldview: a global order dominated by great powers extracting concessions from weaker states. This is starkly evident in Trump's demand for 50 percent of Ukraine's mineral wealth as a condition for continued U.S. support - a proposition Zelensky rejects, further fuelling their discord. The administration's frustration, voiced by National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, and Trump's ominous warning that Zelensky "better move faster" or risk losing his country, underscore the coercive nature of this diplomacy. Experts like Mark Galeotti suggest that Trump's proposal aligns with a "comprehensive redrafting" of U.S. - Russia relations, potentially at Ukraine's expense. Zelensky's refusal to acquiesce quietly, while emotionally understandable, is framed as a tactical misstep for a leader who must exercise restraint in his position. This reveals the tension between national dignity and pragmatic survival, as Ukraine grapples with an ally whose support comes with steep, almost predatory, costs.

Russian influence: Putin's shadow over the west

A pervasive undercurrent in the document is Russia's strategic manoeuvring to exploit Trump's predispositions. Putin's flattery - praising Trump's courage after an assassination attempt and echoing his false claims about the 2020 U.S. election - demonstrates a calculated effort to sway the U.S. president. Trump's call to Putin before Zelensky, his push for Ukrainian elections (a Kremlin talking point), and the "friendly atmosphere" reported in U.S. - Russia talks in Riyadh, identifies this as a deliberate influence operation, leveraging Putin's KGB-honed skills to align Trump's narrative with Moscow's interests. This theme of Russian influence casts a shadow over Ukraine's plight, suggesting that Zelensky's struggle is not only against Trump's whims but also against a broader realignment that could embolden Putin's ambitions. The hint of Russia offering Trump access to its oil reserves further complicates the picture, raising questions about whether Ukraine is being bartered in a larger game of resource-driven geopolitics.

The existential stakes: Ukraine's sovereignty at risk

All this frames Zelensky's predicament as an existential crisis for Ukraine's sovereignty and survival. Trump's shift toward a peace deal that "appears to give Putin much of what he wants" alarms Kyiv and its European allies, threatening to leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression. The U.S. pressure to replace a U.N. resolution condemning Russia with a vague call for peace - devoid of accountability - exemplifies this erosion of support. Ukrainian officials and lawmakers, have expressed a palpable fear that a Trump-brokered deal could "throw Ukraine under the bus," a sentiment echoed by European diplomats who see the U.S. stance as appeasement rather than peace-building. Zelensky's insistence on security guarantees alongside any resource deal reflects an acute awareness that Russia's intent to "crush Ukraine's autonomy" remains undeterred. This theme underscores the high stakes: for Zelensky, salvaging his relationship with Trump is not merely about personal reconciliation but about ensuring Ukraine emerges from the war intact and independent.

Navigating the path forward: diplomacy amid desperation

Perhaps Ukraine can proceed with a cautious optimism that the situation is not irreparable, tempered by planning for the daunting challenges ahead. European officials suggest Zelensky could still agree to a resources deal, if paired with robust security guarantees, while Ukrainian lawmakers and politicians advocate for multi-channel outreach to Trump's circle - evangelicals, military-industrial leaders, and MAGA influencers - to rebuild trust. Yet, the shadow of past missteps looms large: Zelensky's perceived failure to prepare for Trump's return, his emotional responses to provocations, and the awkward history of Trump's 2019 impeachment scandal all complicate this effort. The theme of navigating diplomacy amid desperation captures Zelensky's delicate balancing act - maintaining national pride while bending to the realities of power asymmetry, all under the relentless pressure of war.

The realpolitik paints a vivid portrait of a Ukrainian leader caught in a maelstrom of personal enmity, geopolitical realpolitik, and existential peril. The main themes - fragile alliances, transactional diplomacy, Russian influence, and the fight for sovereignty - interweave to reveal a narrative where Zelensky's ability to mend ties with Trump may determine Ukraine's fate. Whether he can rise above the feud, outmanoeuvre Putin's influence, and secure a deal that preserves his nation's integrity remains an open question. For now, Zelensky stands at a crossroads, where every word, gesture, and decision carries the weight of a country's survival.