Will the election bring a new dawn to Kosovo

In any fair and free national election in Kosovo, most electorates hope that a new chapter will dawn and bring a better prospect for growth, prosperity, and security. Given the current political atmosphere in Kosovo, the public seems conflicted; a relative majority want to see Kurti back at the helm, but they also want more concrete progress on an array of domestic issues and tangible headway in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue. How much of this will be realized will have to await the result of the elections, when the public will see which party will form a coalition government that will be responsive to the public's needs and expectations.

The upcoming elections are expected to be highly competitive, reflecting the fragmented political environment in Kosovo. There are 28 different political entities, including 20 parties, 5 coalitions, 2 civil initiatives, and 1 independent candidate running in this election. The main contenders are Kurti's Vetëvendosje, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) led by Lumir Abdixhiku, and the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) led by Memli Krasniqi, who is gaining more support in various municipalities than Kurti.

Since the election campaign started earlier than usual, it has been further aggravated by the tense atmosphere between Serbian and Albanian political parties. The outcome of the election will likely be shaped not only by the country's domestic concerns but also by the relationship between these parties. There are some concerns that Serbia might try to disrupt the electoral process, particularly in areas with a majority ethnic Serbian population. Belgrade could encourage voter boycotts and spread misinformation, but there is no hard evidence of Serbian interference. PM Kurti is favored to win a plurality but not a majority and may need other parties' support to form the next coalition government. However, the political landscape can shift, though it may not be enough to deny him a second term.

Domestically, during his tenure, Kurti made some inroads on several fronts. Kosovo experienced some economic growth, unemployment was reduced, and minimum wages were increased; fighting organized crime is still a work in progress. In public administration, there is still an ongoing effort to reform civil services and streamline the salary systems. On defense, Kurti increased the budget for training and military equipment procurement.

However, there have been significant domestic failures as well.

Economy: No foreign investors have come to Kosovo over the past four years, mainly due to Kurti's repeated statements that Serbia intends to wage war on Kosovo, discouraging many investors. While imports have increased, exports have decreased, leading to a €5 billion trade deficit. Meanwhile, inflation has risen, and consumer goods have become too expensive for the poor to purchase.

Employment and Emigration: According to statistical data, unemployment has averaged 10.7 percent. Over the past four years, over 150,000 people have left Kosovo. Moreover, in just one year, around 100 doctors and nurses emigrated from Kosovo to EU countries, mainly to Germany, which has provided many employment opportunities for Kosovars.

Healthcare System: The health system remains ineffective, as many citizens still seek healthcare services in Serbia, North Macedonia, Turkey, and other EU countries. This has resulted in hundreds of millions of euros being spent in recent years on medical treatments abroad. Leukemia treatments alone can cost around €200,000 per person. Moreover, delays in implementing a national strategy to fight corruption are troubling, and nepotism in the government remains unchecked.

Environmental Concerns: UNICEF recently reported that Kosovo's air quality contains 25 times the permissible limit of a dangerous pollutant for children, ranking among the worst in Europe.

Kurti's record on foreign relations is mixed. Kurti has unduly focused on Serbia-Kosovo relations, and the EU-sponsored Ohrid Agreement remains unfulfilled. The tension between Kosovo and Serbia still runs high while Kosovo makes limited headway in relations with other European countries. Of greater concern is the continuing rocky ties between Kosovo and the EU, which is sine qua non to Kosovo's security and growth. Moreover, Kurti made little headway in widening ties with other European countries, central to consolidating Kosovo's independence.

Serbia-Kosovo Dialogue

Very little progress was made between Serbia and Kosovo over the past four years. Given the importance of the dialogue, the EU is expected to push for its continuation. The EU will seek the implementation of the existing agreement, particularly the Ohrid Agreement, known as the Agreement on the Path to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia. One of the most important provisions of the dialogue was implementing the Association of Serb Municipalities, which Kosovo refused to do. At the same time, Serbia's President Vucic objected to any aspect of the agreement that implied recognition of Kosovo's independence.

Due to the continuing tension between the two countries, a lack of trust and flexibility will continue to hinder any meaningful progress toward normalization unless the dynamic of this conflicting issue is changed. While both parties are facing increasing pressure from the EU and the US, whose involvement is essential to advance the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, deep-seated historical grievances and conflicting political interests continue to obstruct progress. Moreover, despite the indispensable role of the EU, its leverage over both countries is limited, especially because the EU cannot offer a clear path to membership.