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The Herculean task facing the new Syrian government

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Monday, 20 January 2025


Turkey: Given that Turkey supported the rebels in their drive to oust Assad, it will be much harder for the Syrian government to rid itself of the Turkish military presence in Syria. Like Russia, Turkey also used the Astana framework to justify its military buildup, especially in northern Syria, to battle Kurdish forces, which Ankara views as critical to its national interests.

Other than emphasizing Syria's sovereignty, the new government should offer Turkey plans to combat terrorist groups, negotiate the return of Syrian refugees, engage with Syrian Kurds to reach a compromise that deals with Turkey's security concerns, offer extensive economic cooperation, propose phased withdraw of forces, and seek international support to exert diplomatic and financial pressure on Turkey.

Iran: Ahmed al-Sharaa has already demanded that Iran withdraw its forces and all of its military installations from Syria. His government should demand non-interference in sovereign Syria, and revoke access to military compounds previously used by Iran, strengthen border security to avert Iran from reentering Syria, and prevent it from smuggling weapons to Hezbollah.

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Moreover, the new regime should threaten to cancel all bilateral economic cooperation if Iran does not respect its sovereignty, seeking support from the UN to pressure Iran to respect Syrian sovereignty and make it clear to Tehran that it will not permit the use of Syria as a staging theater to threaten Israel.

Israel: Israel took advantage of Assad's fall and started massive bombardments to destroy Assad's military installations and weapons depots while occupying the buffer zone and Mount Hermon. Given that Israel is extraordinarily sensitive about its security, the al-Sharaa government ought to tread carefully with Israel to prevent any military conflagration that would dangerously undermine the urgent need to rehabilitate the country.

The new government should fully adhere to the 1974 disengagement agreement (to which it has already committed itself) and ask Israel to do the same, making it clear that it will seek a peaceful solution to all conflicts with Israel. It is essential to establish back-channel communications to discuss border security, propose confidence-building measures, including water management in the border area, and work with the United Nations Disengagement Observers Force to ensure efficient monitoring of the buffer zone.

It is hard to overstate the colossal task that al-Sharaa and the new government in Syria must undertake on all fronts to stabilize the country and avoid violence internally and externally. It should be noted that Syria cannot tackle this monumental task alone. The US, the EU, the Arab states, and Israel have a vested interest in maintaining regional stability and security and need to collaborate with the new Syrian regime to achieve their mutual objectives, starting by lifting the designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization and bestowing legitimacy on its governing authority.

Thus far, all signs point to the new Syrian government's commitment to executing its publicly stated goal of ending suffering and forging a new path to peace and security, which the Syrian people desperately long for.

 

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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