Arctic politics are getting warmer

The Arctic could become a new Mediterranean. For the first time in its history, the Arctic looks set to play a larger role in world politics. The Arctic could provide the shortest route between the world’s most industrialized countries. As with the original Mediterranean, the new one could provide trading opportunities for the neighbouring countries.  

Half a century ago, for example, the polar ice cap was twice as big as it is today. Warmer Arctic weather creates new opportunities for maritime transport and wealth. 

The world is moving into an era of increasing scarcity of resources. China and India are now proceeding with very ambitious programmes for industrialization and there is concern about where all the resources will be found to satisfy their demand. 

The increased global demand has meant that there have been considerable improvements in the technology of exploration and mining, and so it is possible to operate at depths and in locations which would have seemed impossible half a century ago, such as drilling in the North Sea.

The Arctic is assumed to have vast untapped resources. For example, the Arctic may hold nearly as much as a quarter of the world’s unexplored oil and natural gas. 

There may also be other forms of wealth, such as diamonds, gold, manganese, nickel lead and platinum (much the same as is already found in the surrounding countries). 

There has been an increased presence by the neighbouring countries in the Arctic, if only to reinforce their territorial claims. For example, Russia is establishing military bases along its northern coastline. Russia now has more military vessels in the region since the end of the Cold War in 1991. The US by contrast is a long way behind in reinforcing its (much more) limited presence.

Finally, there are the knock-on effects in the rest of the world if the Arctic is developed. The vision that inspired European mariners for centuries – a quick route to Asia – is now becoming available. 

The North-West Passage is now open to shipping for some of the ice-free summer months: through the top of Canada, along the northern coast of Alaska and down through the Bering Strait. As the planet warms and the ice declines, so that window of navigation will get wider. 

This will have implications for the other long-range routes (such as around Africa) and through the Panama and Suez Canals. It would also have favourable implications for climate change: less fuel will be used to transport goods. The North-West Passage would also avoid the growing risk of piracy/ terrorism off the Somali coast, Gulf of Yemen/ Red Sea, and across the Indian Ocean.

Another wider political implication will be the eventual increase in power of both Russia and Canada. Assuming that the mineral development can flourish, then both will get a benefit to their national wealth, and this will give both increased economic and political leverage. 

Russia controls the world’s largest reserves of natural gas and (prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine) there was concern that West was becoming too reliant on Russia as an energy supplier. The West (particularly Germany) was vulnerable to Russian pressure because of this reliance.