Post-Assad power struggle: a new battle awaits Syria

However, the U.S. faces a difficult balancing act. While it has long advocated for a post-Assad Syria governed by democratic principles, the presence of Islamist factions, such as those aligned with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), complicates this vision. Washington will likely continue to back those forces it deems most likely to resist Islamism, even if those forces, like the SDF, are viewed as terrorists by regional players such as Turkey.

The future of U.S. involvement in Syria will be shaped by the need to prevent the resurgence of ISIS and similar groups. With Assad out of the picture and Russia distracted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, the U.S. may seek to strengthen its influence over the Syrian political process, but it will be hampered by the complexity of dealing with a patchwork of militias, regional players and global powers all vying for control.

Daunting and fragile road to reconstruction

As celebrations in Damascus give way to the sobering realities of post-Assad Syria, the challenges ahead are immense. With competing factions, sectarian divides and the looming specter of groups like ISIS, the path to stability will be long and fraught with obstacles.

Rebuilding the country will require not just military victory but economic reconstruction, social reconciliation and political transition. The international community, particularly Western nations, will likely be called upon to provide aid and assistance in Syria's rebuilding efforts.

However, this assistance will be highly contingent on the political direction the country takes. Will Syria lean towards the liberal values championed by the West, or will it move toward Islamist governance? How the new Syrian leadership, likely to be dominated by HTS or similar groups, navigates this question will be crucial.

Sanctions, diplomacy and alliances in the new reality

One of the most pressing questions is how the international community will engage with Syria's new rulers. The Western powers, which have long shunned Assad, will have to grapple with the reality that many of the factions now in control of Syria, especially those linked to HTS, are considered terrorist organizations by the U.S. and its allies.

A significant challenge will be determining how to engage with a new Syria while balancing the need for stabilization with the desire to avoid empowering forces that the U.S. and its allies view as terrorists.

The geopolitical contest will also involve Russia and Iran, whose influence in Syria has been severely weakened by the fall of Assad. Russia, bogged down by the war in Ukraine, will be unable to project power in Syria as it once did. Iran, similarly, has seen its position erode with the departure of Assad.

In Syria, the future of Russia and Iran will depend on their ability to recalibrate their strategies, possibly by backing certain rebel factions or negotiating with new political authorities in Damascus.

Battle for Syria's future is far from over

While the fall of Assad marks a historic moment, the true test of Syria's future will be how the country rebuilds politically, economically and socially. Regional and global players are positioning themselves to shape the outcome, with each having a stake in what comes next.

What is clear, however, is that the road ahead will be turbulent, with power struggles both within Syria and across the Middle East. In the end, Syria's fate will be shaped not only by its own people but by the shifting dynamics of regional and international politics.