Aleppo’s fall: a crumbling regime and the shifting sands of Syria’s civil war

The capture of large parts of Aleppo by rebel forces marks one of the most dramatic developments in Syria's civil war in years. For President Bashar al-Assad's regime, this turn of events could signify the beginning of the end of a decade-long stranglehold over the country's war-torn landscape. With his primary allies distracted and internal cohesion reportedly fraying, Assad faces perhaps his most precarious moment since the uprising began.

The rebel surge and Its implications

Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rebel forces have made sweeping gains in Aleppo, reversing nearly a decade of Assad's dominance in northern Syria. What is being described as a "total collapse" of regime forces in this region underlines a stark truth: Assad's military apparatus is buckling under pressure.

Aleppo's fall is not merely a symbolic blow-it has significant strategic and economic implications. Once Syria's largest city and economic hub, Aleppo has long been a critical pillar in Assad's post-2016 recovery narrative. Its loss to rebels shatters this illusion, undermining the regime's legitimacy and further destabilizing an already shattered economy. The economic impact will likely ripple through Syria, exacerbating widespread poverty, food insecurity, and infrastructure collapse.

The Assad regime's struggle for survival

Assad's plight is compounded by the wavering support of his external allies. Russia, embroiled in its protracted war in Ukraine, has significantly scaled back its military involvement, while Hezbollah finds itself overstretched and depleted following heavy losses against Israel. Iran, too, faces a strategic dilemma: having invested heavily in Assad's survival, it must now decide whether to double down in Syria or shift focus to its other regional priorities.

Internally, the situation grows even murkier. Reports of discord within Assad's inner circle suggest cracks in what was once considered an impenetrable bastion of power. Rumors of coup plots and speculation about Assad retreating to Moscow underscore the fragile state of his rule. Such instability raises an uncomfortable question: if the Assad regime collapses, what comes next?

Humanitarian crisis: the forgotten victims

As these seismic shifts unfold, the Syrian people bear the brunt of the chaos. Aleppo's fall will likely spark new waves of displacement as civilians flee renewed violence. Humanitarian organizations warn of worsening conditions, with shortages of food, water, and medical supplies threatening the lives of millions. This humanitarian catastrophe underscores the urgent need for international attention, even as global powers remain preoccupied with their own crises.

The rebel coalition: unity or fragmentation?

While HTS has spearheaded the offensive, the broader cohesion of rebel factions remains a critical question. Historically, infighting among opposition groups has undermined their ability to sustain victories. If Aleppo's fall does not translate into a unified political and military front, these gains could prove fleeting. Moreover, HTS's Islamist ideology may alienate potential domestic and international supporters, complicating efforts to establish a stable governance framework in the territories they control.

Regional repercussions: beyond Israel

The fall of Aleppo reverberates across the region. For Turkey, the prospect of intensified conflict along its southern border raises security concerns and the risk of renewed refugee flows. Jordan, already strained by years of hosting Syrian refugees, may face additional pressure, while Lebanon's fragile political and economic situation risks further destabilization if violence spills over.

Israel, meanwhile, is grappling with the strategic implications of Assad's potential collapse. While some in Jerusalem see an opportunity to weaken Iran's influence in Syria, others caution that a post-Assad power vacuum could empower extremist factions hostile to Israel. This delicate calculus reflects the broader uncertainty gripping the region as the Syrian conflict takes another unpredictable turn.

The international community's role

The response of the international community-or the lack thereof-will play a pivotal role in shaping Syria's future. Western powers, long criticized for their ambivalence toward Syria, face renewed questions about their responsibility to act. Should the United States and its allies intervene diplomatically to facilitate a political solution, or will they continue to leave Syria to its fate? Meanwhile, the United Nations, hamstrung by geopolitical rivalries, risks being sidelined once again as the crisis escalates.

Lessons from the past

This moment bears striking similarities to past turning points in the Syrian civil war, such as the fall of Aleppo to regime forces in 2016 or the rise of ISIS. However, it also highlights the cyclical nature of the conflict, where victories are often pyrrhic, and new horrors quickly replace old ones. The fall of Aleppo to rebels is a reminder that in Syria, no single actor has ever managed to establish lasting control, and the prospects for peace remain as distant as ever.

The road ahead

Syria's civil war has always been a cauldron of complexity, a battlefield not just of Syrians but of ideologies, geopolitics, and proxy wars. The fall of Aleppo may mark a turning point, but it is far from the endgame. Assad's regime faces an existential threat, yet the alternative-a fragmented Syria ruled by a patchwork of militias and factions-is hardly more palatable to the international community, including Iran.

As the sands of Syria's civil war continue to shift, the world watches with bated breath. What unfolds in the coming months will shape not only Syria's future but the stability of the entire Middle East. Whether Assad can claw back control or succumbs to the tide of rebellion, one truth remains: Syria's suffering is far from over, and its path to peace is shrouded in uncertainty.