The implications of Trump’s return to power for the EU and the Balkans

Kosovo faces a heightened risk from Russia's influence once Trump returns to power. Trump will likely take a tougher position on Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The potential change could revive contentious discussions around a land swap between Serbia and Kosovo, which the latter refuses even to contemplate. For this reason, it is critical for Kosovo to remain vigilant, work closely with the EU, and be prepared for any shift in US foreign policy. And given Trump's tendency to admire strong men, it would not be surprising if he sought closer alignment with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on regional issues. Additionally, Trump could potentially roll back sanctions on actors like Milorad Dodik in Bosnia's Republika Srpska, which could potentially destabilize the region.

Finally, the combination of Serbian nationalism and Russian opportunism could rattle stability in the region. Trump's warm relations with Putin might still promote Serbian interests to please Putin, which could undermine stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Leaders such as Dodik have already expressed that a Trump presidency will facilitate their secessionist ambition, particularly regarding Republika Srpska's independence from Bosnia. If given a position in the administration, Richard Grenell might play a significant role in shaping Balkan policy.

It should be emphasized that these potential policy changes are speculative and based on Trump's policy toward the Balkan states during his first term and the statements made by his new foreign policy advisors. Trump's actual policy could differ depending on various factors and regional developments. Moreover, known for his desire to achieve quick results, Trump may disengage from the region if he does not consider it a strategic priority, and potentially, he would leave it to the EU. But given his mantra of America first, he should know that maintaining the US' global leadership where it can exert considerable influence best serves America's interest.

The EU has been preparing for a potential Trump return to power, and the Balkan states have also been doing the same. They are bracing for a potentially tumultuous period. The EU is focusing on economic resilience that would include retaliatory measures and strengthening trade agreements with other nations. On the security side, they have decided to increase defense spending and assume a greater role in helping Ukraine to defend itself. The Balkans are also looking to foster greater unity within the European community by taking steps to enhance their integration with the EU and develop strong ties with its institutions.

The EU's new strategy addresses many contingencies that may arise to ensure that even the slightest US disengagement will not render the European community vulnerable. Noting all the speculations about what Trump will or won't do, no doomsday will dawn on the European Community under his watch, as greater self-reliance will help the EU to emerge even stronger and firmly united