Hold onto your hats: As Trump 2.0 nears, we should be afraid. Very afraid.

With Trump’s tax holiday, Apple was gifted US$45 billion in cash it could repatriate to the US at an artificially low tax rate, while Microsoft reaped an impressive US$27 billion.

Bush’s generous 2004-05 corporate tax holiday was halted, once the deleterious fiscal impact was recognised. But that didn’t stop Trump duplicating it in 2017 regardless, and the impact was immediate – budget corporate revenue fell 31% in the first year, and the federal fiscal deficit hit almost US$1 trillion.

Despite promises to turbocharge the economy, Trump saw job losses in every year of his presidency – 2017, 2018 and 2019 – even when the disastrous COVID data of 2020 is excluded.

Moreover, Trump’s administration in 2017-19 saw job losses accrue every year. In comparison with Obama’s last three years (2014-16), there were fewer Americans in employment every single year of Trump’s presidency.

Ancient history now, right? No. This is the future.

The Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s extension of the expiring 2017 act will cost the budget more than US$3 trillion over 10 years. The upside of that would result in an estimated 597,000 full-time equivalent jobs, over the long run.

Damagingly, these gains would be more than offset by more than 1.3 million job losses arising from the planned Trump tariffs of 20% across the board, plus 50% tariffs on China.

These are conservative estimates, given that Biden implemented 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs in October 2024; Trump has threatened to go harder still, with 200% tariffs on Mexican auto exports, and even plans for 2000% tariffs on Chinese car exports.

None of these policies would do any harm to Trump’s new-found firm friend, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla. On Wall Street, Tesla shares have risen 25% since the election. Not a coincidence.