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Iran’s predicaments in the wake of Nasrallah’s assassination

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Wednesday, 2 October 2024


Israel's tactical win is short-lived

Whereas Netanyahu is basking in Israel's success in the killing of Nasrallah, he still has no exit strategy from Gaza or a plan to end the hostilities in Lebanon. Netanyahu's foremost concern remains his political survival, and he still fails to understand that decapitating Hamas and Hezbollah's leaders will not end the conflict with either group.

A new generation of fierce, ruthless, and vengeful leaders will rise, and though they know they cannot destroy Israel, they can deprive it of a day of peace. These groups will withstand any Israeli onslaught in the future, Iran will become even stronger, and it may well accelerate the production of a nuclear weapon to deter any enemy from attacking it, which is precisely what Netanyahu wants to prevent.

Iran is and will continue to be a key player in the region; the US should signal its willingness to chart a new constructive path that would lead to reconciliation between the two countries. Netanyahu should not push his luck. Israel's intelligence capabilities and technological advantages have their limits. He should not push Hezbollah to the brink and force Iran to enter the fray.

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This crisis offers a rare opportunity to set the region on a new course and avert a regional war, especially if Iran is willing to play a constructive role, as President Pezeshkian articulated. Biden should put him to the test and warn Netanyahu that he must fully cooperate in a strategy to end the conflict before it's too late.

 

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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